Gasoline, also known as petrol, has been one of the main sources of fuel for vehicles for over a century. However, with rising gas prices, depleting oil reserves, and growing environmental concerns, many people wonder if gas will be around forever or eventually be replaced by alternative fuels.
How is gasoline made?
Gasoline is produced by refining crude oil that is extracted from underground oil reservoirs. Crude oil contains thousands of different hydrocarbon compounds that must be separated and purified through processes like fractional distillation. The resulting gasoline contains hydrocarbon compounds in the C4 to C12 range, which have the right volatility and combustibility properties to power car engines.
Why has gasoline been so popular historically?
There are a few key reasons why gasoline has dominated the transportation sector for so long:
- High energy density – Gasoline packs a large amount of energy per gallon, allowing vehicles to drive longer distances.
- Ease of transport – Liquid gasoline can be easily transported through pipelines and tanker trucks.
- Infrastructure – Vast infrastructure exists for gasoline production, transportation, and retail distribution.
- Convenience – Gasoline engines can be refueled quickly, and gas stations are ubiquitous.
- Cost – For many decades, gasoline was relatively inexpensive to produce and consume.
These favorable attributes allowed gasoline to become deeply entrenched and gain a virtual monopoly over transportation fuels. Even when alternatives emerged, gasoline continued to benefit from technical momentum and extensive infrastructure locking in its dominance.
Are global oil reserves running out?
Fossil fuel reserves are ultimately finite, but estimates of remaining global oil supplies vary. According to BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy, global proved oil reserves stood at 1,729 billion barrels at the end of 2021. At current production rates of ~80 million barrels per day, these reserves represent about 50 years of oil left.
However, proved reserves are constantly revised as new discoveries are made and recovery technology improves. Total recoverable conventional oil resources are estimated to be around 2.5-3 trillion barrels. Moreover, unconventional sources like shale oil, tar sands, and gas liquids add substantially to potential future supply. Based on these larger resource estimates, oil supplies could potentially last almost 200 years at current demand.
Nonetheless, easily accessible oil is becoming harder to find, and unconventional sources are more expensive to exploit. New discoveries and sources may be insufficient to indefinitely offset depletion of existing fields. So while estimates vary, most experts agree conventional oil production will inevitably start declining within this century.
How much gas does the US consume?
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), total US gasoline consumption reached about 8.8 million barrels per day in 2021. This equates to around 140 billion gallons annually. Although gasoline demand declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been rebounding close to pre-pandemic levels.
The table below shows US gasoline consumption over the last decade:
| Year | Consumption (million bbl/day) |
|---|---|
| 2012 | 8.8 |
| 2013 | 8.8 |
| 2014 | 9.0 |
| 2015 | 9.3 |
| 2016 | 9.3 |
| 2017 | 9.3 |
| 2018 | 9.3 |
| 2019 | 9.3 |
| 2020 | 8.0 |
| 2021 | 8.8 |
The US consumes around 20% of the world’s oil production, with over half going towards gasoline. Satisfying America’s massive gasoline appetite relies on global oil supplies.
How much does gasoline cost around the world?
Because gasoline is traded on global markets and subject to various taxes, its price can vary dramatically around the world. As of October 2022, average gasoline prices in different parts of the world were:
- United States – $3.80/gallon
- Canada – $4.41/gallon
- Mexico – $3.83/gallon
- Venezuela – $0.02/gallon
- Saudi Arabia – $0.54/gallon
- Norway – $9.17/gallon
- UK – $6.07/gallon
- France – $6.62/gallon
- India – $4.72/gallon
- Japan – $4.97/gallon
- Australia – $4.94/gallon
Gasoline prices have risen substantially worldwide in 2022 due to recovering demand and Russia’s war in Ukraine disrupting oil supplies. But prices still vary enormously based on factors like location, taxes, subsidies, refining costs and competition.
US gasoline prices over time
Gasoline prices in the United States have fluctuated significantly over the past few decades:
| Year | Average US Retail Gas Price |
|---|---|
| 1990 | $1.16/gallon |
| 2000 | $1.51/gallon |
| 2010 | $2.78/gallon |
| 2020 | $2.17/gallon |
| 2022 | $3.80/gallon |
US gasoline prices are strongly influenced by crude oil prices, refining costs, taxes, and supply/demand balances. Extended periods of high prices typically lead consumers to drive less and buy more fuel-efficient vehicles.
What factors could limit gasoline supply?
While estimates of total global oil resources are large, several supply constraints could potentially disrupt gasoline availability and drive prices higher:
- Peak oil – Conventional oil production may reach a peak then decline as major fields deplete faster than new reserves are found.
- Extraction costs – Unconventional oil sources like shale, deepwater, and oil sands are more expensive to extract, limiting supply at lower prices.
- Underinvestment – Lack of investment in exploration and production could create future supply shortfalls as demand recovers.
- Geopolitics – Political instability and conflicts in key oil-producing regions often interrupt supplies.
- Refinery capacity – Limitations in global oil refining capacity could prevent converting enough crude into gasoline.
- Transportation bottlenecks – Disruptions to pipelines, ports, shipping routes, and trucking can restrict gasoline deliveries.
These potential constraints underscore gasoline’s continued vulnerability to supply shocks, even with large oil resources remaining. And existing infrastructure is highly optimized for gasoline, limiting flexibility to respond to shortages.
How quickly can alternatives replace gasoline?
Alternatives like biofuels, natural gas, hydrogen, and electricity are gaining traction in transportation. But large-scale displacement of gasoline will take substantial time due to many inertial factors:
- Hundreds of millions of existing gasoline vehicles that cannot run on other fuels
- Trillions invested in infrastructure tailored for gasoline production and distribution
- Technical limitations of alternatives like lower energy densities
- High costs to produce alternatives at equivalent scales to gasoline
- Consumer acceptance and risk aversion to unfamiliar technologies
- Policy and lobbying influence slowing transition away from gasoline
These factors mean full transitions between dominant transportation fuels have historically taken multiple decades. While alternatives will chip away at gasoline’s market share, an outright rapid collapse seems unlikely without major technological breakthroughs or aggressive policy intervention.
Projected alternative fuel use in US transportation
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces long-term projections for adoption of alternative fuels. In their 2022 Annual Energy Outlook reference case, the EIA predicts:
| Fuel | 2020 Consumption | 2050 Projected Consumption |
|---|---|---|
| Gasoline | 8.8 million bbl/day | 7.6 million bbl/day |
| Electricity | 0.02 million bbl/day | 1.9 million bbl/day |
| Hydrogen | 0 | 0.2 million bbl/day |
| Biofuels | 1.0 million bbl/day | 2.1 million bbl/day |
This shows gasoline still dominating US transportation energy 30 years from now, but alternatives slowly gaining market share. Full displacement would take beyond 2050 under these projections.
Could gasoline consumption ever reach zero?
Achieving zero gasoline consumption worldwide poses enormous challenges:
- Over 1 billion vehicles globally currently use gasoline, with growth continuing in developing nations
- Trillions of dollars of infrastructure dedicated to gasoline production and distribution
- High energy density and convenience gives gasoline inherent advantages over alternatives
- Alternatives have their own environmental impacts, like lithium mining for EV batteries
- Biofuels may be unable to scale sustainability to entirely replace oil-derived gasoline
Barring major disruptive technology advances, eliminating the last drop of global gasoline consumption seems unlikely in the foreseeable future. However, consumption could potentially peak then decline to very low levels by 2100 assuming large-scale policy support and adoption of alternatives.
What would happen if the world abruptly ran out of gasoline?
An overnight collapse of global gasoline supplies would cause massive societal disruption:
- Mass stranding as millions unable to fuel vehicles
- Severe transportation network failures hampering trade and emergency services
- Hoarding, fuel rationing, and soaring black market gasoline prices
- Collapse of car-dependent businesses like drive-thru restaurants and suburban retail
- Pressure to rapidly convert thousands of gas stations to alternative fuels
- Accelerated vehicle electrification, but with grid overload risks
- Surge in bicycling, walking, carpooling, and transit usage
- Economic depression from supply chain breakdowns and loss of mobility
- Geopolitical turmoil and conflict over scarce fuel resources
A gasoline supply cutoff would likely cause a devastating economic shock. But over the longer-term, forced adaptation would accelerate transitions to alternatives that might otherwise take many decades.
Conclusion
Despite growing concerns, gasoline is likely to remain a prominent transportation fuel globally for the next few decades given vast existing infrastructure and strong inherent advantages. Gasoline may eventually enter terminal decline and fade away by 2100. But expectations that gasoline will abruptly disappear any time soon seem overly optimistic. Near complete displacement will require overcoming substantial inertia across technology, infrastructure, markets, and consumer choice.
Nonetheless, gasoline’s long-term future is clearly precarious as alternatives incrementally chip away at demand. And in the meantime, consumers will need to brace for ongoing gasoline price volatility as supplies remain prone to disruption. Although the exact timing is uncertain, gasoline’s century-long dominance in transportation is assuredly finite.