Islam is the world’s fastest growing religion, but there are several factors that are contributing to a decline in growth rates and adherence in some parts of the Muslim world. Though Islam continues to grow globally, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, high birth rates and conversions are increasingly being offset by other trends.
Lower birth rates
One of the main reasons Islam is growing more slowly is that Muslim majority countries have experienced sharp declines in fertility rates in recent decades. Countries like Iran, Tunisia, and Lebanon have seen their fertility rates fall below replacement level. This means new generations are smaller in size than older ones. For example:
| Country | Fertility Rate in 1975 | Fertility Rate in 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Iran | 6.5 | 1.6 |
| Tunisia | 6.2 | 2.1 |
| Lebanon | 4.6 | 1.7 |
This trend of lower birth rates applies to Muslim populations globally. In 2010, the average Muslim woman had 3.1 children but this is expected to fall to 2.9 by 2030 and 2.7 by 2050. Lower birth rates mean Islam will grow at a slower rate compared to earlier decades.
Increasing secularization
Another factor is that traditionally Muslim societies are becoming more secular. Islamic practices and beliefs are being abandoned or adapted. For example, in Lebanon, only around half of Sunnis say religion is very important in their lives. Secular attitudes are spreading especially among urban, educated, and young Muslim populations.
Rising incomes, access to technology, and exposure to Western culture and values have contributed to secularization. As Muslim societies modernize and develop, religion often takes a backseat. Strict interpretation of Islamic law has less appeal in the context of modern democratic values.
Less adherence to Islamic dress codes
One visible sign of secularization is looser adherence to traditional Islamic dress codes. For example, in Iran, fewer women are donning the headscarf (hijab) despite it being compulsory. In 2004, 90% of Iranian women wore the headscarf compared to only 66% in 2019. In Indonesia, the hijab was virtually invisible in the 1960s but became a fashion statement from the 1990s. However, the trend is now reversing, with more Indonesian Muslim women abandoning it entirely.
Lower mosque attendance
Another manifestation of secularization is lower mosque attendance. A 2012 study found just over a third of male Muslims in Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Tunisia, and Saudi Arabia self-reported attending mosque for the weekly Friday prayer. This share would likely be even lower excluding Saudi Arabia where attendance is high. Empty mosques are becoming a common sight as religious fervor wanes.
Dissatisfaction with Islamist parties
In many Muslim nations, Islamist parties promising to implement sharia law came to power after the 2011 Arab Spring. However, their governance has often led to disillusionment and loss of faith. Islamist parties failed to solve deep-rooted economic problems in countries like Egypt. Their religious agendas also faced resistance from secular segments of society.
In 2013, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood was overthrown after mass protests against then President Morsi’s attempts to Islamize the constitution. Tunisia’s leading Islamist party Ennahda similarly lost support after failing to revitalize the economy or improve living standards. These failed experiments have caused many to sour towards political Islam.
Rise of Islamic skepticism
Skepticism towards Islam among Muslims has emerged mostly in the information age. The internet has given rise to online communities, blogs, and social media accounts promoting Islamic critique. An example is the online forum Murtad, whose Indonesian ex-Muslim members question teachings like polygamy and child marriage. Access to information fuels re-interpretation of theology. Loss of faith is also rising among Western Muslim diaspora communities.
| Platform | Facebook Followers |
|---|---|
| Council of Ex-Muslims of Britain Facebook Page | 113,000 |
| Ex-Muslims of North America Facebook Page | 56,000 |
These online platforms allow closeted ex-Muslims to find support anonymously. Feelings of doubt towards Islam were always present but the internet enables them to be expressed in new ways.
Persecution of minorities
Persecution of religious minorities in the Muslim world also contributes to negative perceptions of Islam. While Islamic law theoretically protects minorities like Christians and Jews, violent groups often target their communities. Boko Haram in Nigeria and Al-Shabaab in East Africa are examples of radical Islamist groups that persecute Christians through bombings and forced conversions.
High profile cases like Pakistan’s controversial blasphemy laws also shape global views on Islam. Pakistan’s discriminatory laws are often abused to persecute minorities, especially Christians who bear the brunt of false blasphemy allegations. These factors drive some minorities to leave Islam entirely.
Violent extremism
The rise of radical Islamic terror groups since the 1990s has caused some Muslims to become disillusioned with their faith. Though terrorists represent a miniscule fraction of Muslims, groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda dominate global perceptions of Islam. Their wanton brutality in the name of Islam has bred a sense of shame among law-abiding Muslims.
Extremist ideology is also increasingly being rejected. After ISIS established its caliphate in 2014, many flocked to join it in hopes of living under “true” Islamic rule. However, witnessing ISIS’ corruption and bloodshed led most to become disillusioned and abandon jihadism. Violent extremism ultimately damages Islam’s image more than advancing it.
Changing values
Macro social changes like individualism and feminism have also impacted religious adherence. As Muslim societies develop, collectivist values give way to individualism. Questions like “what does Islam say” become replaced by “what do I think is right.” This empowers personal interpretation over following clerical authority.
Similarly, modern feminist thought is encouraging Muslim women to challenge historic gender roles. Patriarchal Islamic interpretations that justify male authority over women are being questioned. Women assuming greater economic and social rights are thus also re-evaluating religious duty. This expands individual choice beyond traditionalism.
Conclusion
Though Islam remains the world’s fastest growing major religion, growth rates have declined in recent decades. Lower birth rates, secularization, disillusionment with Islamism, skepticism, changing values and violent extremism have all contributed to stagnating or reversing growth trends in parts of the Muslim world. However, Islam continues expanding in sub-Saharan Africa where birth rates remain high and Muslim populations are young. Globally, Islam is projected to grow though at more modest rates compared to the late 20th century. Within Islam, traditionalist and modernist approaches will likely keep contending as Muslim populations navigate faith in the modern context.