California has long been seen as a land of opportunity, attracting people from across the country and around the world with its sunny weather, beaches, mountains, and booming industries. However, in recent years, the tide has started to turn as more people have been leaving California than moving in. Between 2007 and 2016, California lost over 1 million residents to domestic migration, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This mass exodus has led many to ask: why is everyone leaving California?
High Cost of Living
One of the main reasons people are fleeing California is the state’s incredibly high cost of living. Everything from housing to gasoline is significantly more expensive in California compared to other parts of the country. According to the Council for Community and Economic Research, California has the 2nd highest cost of living index in the U.S. as of 2019. Housing costs in particular have skyrocketed in recent years, especially in desirable areas like San Francisco and Los Angeles. The median home price in San Francisco is now over $1.3 million. High housing costs have made it increasingly difficult for middle and working class families to afford to live in California, driving many away to more affordable states.
High Taxes
In addition to the high cost of living, California also has some of the highest taxes in the nation. California has the highest state income tax in the U.S., with rates ranging from 1% to 13.3%. The state sales tax rate is 7.25%, higher than any other state. California also has a relatively high corporate tax rate at 8.84%, further driving away businesses and jobs. While taxes pay for many services in the state, more and more residents feel they are not getting the best value for what they pay, fueling the exodus out of California.
Increasing Population Density
California is the most populous state in the country, with over 39.5 million residents as of 2019 according to the U.S. Census Bureau. However, the state has limited land and infrastructure to support this large of a population. As the population continues to grow through domestic and foreign migration, housing is becoming increasingly scarce and congestion is worsening. The average commute time in California is now approximately 30 minutes, the 5th worst in the nation. Dense urban areas combined with traffic and congestion have contributed to a lower quality of life, motivating people to seek out less crowded areas to call home.
Pollution
Years of rapid development and increased population have taken their toll on California’s land and environment. Many of California’s cities suffer from heavy air pollution and smog, with Los Angeles frequently ranking as one of the cities with the worst air quality in the U.S. California also struggles with pollution and contamination of important water sources, such as the Colorado River. Concerns over long-term health impacts of pollution and desire for cleaner surroundings have helped spur departures.
Natural Disasters
California’s mild climate has plenty of advantages but also comes with increased susceptibility to natural disasters including wildfires, earthquakes, floods, and mudslides. In recent years massive wildfires have become a regular occurrence, devastating millions of acres, thousands of structures, and causing dozens of fatalities. Flooding and mudslides wreak havoc during the wet season. And the threat of “The Big One”, a massive earthquake along the San Andreas Fault, looms large. Those leaving California have cited wanting to live somewhere with fewer natural disaster risks.
Job Market Changes
While Silicon Valley has long been the technology hub of the world, changes in the job market have led to shifts away from California. With more tech companies embracing remote work policies, California’s role as the central location of top tech talent has diminished. At the same time, other states are investing heavily in growing their own tech hubs, providing appealing alternatives. Texas in particular has seen huge growth in the tech sector, driving migration from California. Changes in the job market and remote work has allowed residents to seek opportunities elsewhere.
Retirement Outmigration
California has also seen a major exodus of retirees leaving the state to spend their retirement years elsewhere. In the 2010s, California lost more people over 60 years old than any other age group according to U.S. Census Bureau data. With the high costs that come with California, many retirees opt to cash out from their expensive homes and settle in states with lower costs of living. This saves retirees money down the road. Popular retirement relocation destinations include Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Texas.
Political Environment
Some former California residents cite dissatisfaction with the political environment as impacting their decision to relocate. California is regarded as a deeply progressive state with liberal social and fiscal policies. For those who lean conservative politically, California’s political climate can feel at odds with their beliefs. While not necessarily the primary factor, California’s blue state status drives some emigration from the state. Other states like Texas and Tennessee with cheaper costs of living and more conservative policies are gaining former California residents.
Urbanization
California is in the midst of major urbanization trends, with more and more residents concentrated in a few heavily populated cities and surrounding suburbs. Meanwhile the interior and rural areas of California are becoming less populated. For those seeking a slower pace of life, less densely populated areas, and more land/home for the money, California’s increasing urbanization pushes them out. The sprawl of Los Angeles and growth of San Francisco leaves little appeal. Those fleeing urban life in California have sought out states like New Mexico, Wyoming, and Idaho which offer more rural options.
Conclusion
It’s clear that a variety of factors have led to the steady migration out of California over the past decade. While no state is perfect, the combination of high costs, taxes, population density, pollution, natural disasters, job shifts, urbanization, and an unappealing political climate have driven away millions of former residents. For those looking for affordability, less crowding, cleaner environments, safety from natural disasters, and cultural/political alignment, other states now hold more appeal. While California remains a desirable location for many, the scales have tipped for a growing number of people. Only time will tell if any of these migration trends reverse back in California’s favor in the years ahead.
References
| Data Source | Key Facts |
| U.S. Census Bureau | – California lost over 1 million residents to domestic migration between 2007-2016 |
| Council for Community and Economic Research | – California has the 2nd highest cost of living index in the U.S. as of 2019 |
| Zillow | – Median home value in San Francisco over $1.3 million |
| U.S. Census Bureau | – California has highest state income tax: 1%-13.3% |
| Tax Foundation | – California state sales tax rate: 7.25% |
| Tax Foundation | – California corporate tax rate: 8.84% |
| U.S. Census Bureau | – California population of over 39.5 million in 2019 |
| INRIX 2019 Global Traffic Scorecard | – California average commute time approximately 30 minutes |
| American Lung Association | – Los Angeles frequently has worst air quality |
| California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) | – Over 4.2 million acres burned by wildfires in California 2020 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | – California saw high levels of retiree outmigration in 2010s |
| World Population Review | – Top states Californians are moving to: Texas, Arizona, Washington, Nevada |