Marriage is a commitment that many people make, but unfortunately, not all marriages last forever. Around 40-50% of marriages in the United States end in divorce. However, the divorce rate is not the same across all demographics. Research has shown that certain factors like age, education level, income, and geographic location can influence a couple’s likelihood of getting divorced.
Age at Marriage
One of the most significant factors that impacts divorce rates is the age at which a person gets married. Numerous studies have found that couples who marry young, in their teens or early 20s, have a higher chance of getting divorced later on. This may be because people who get married at a very young age are less mature, less financially stable, and have put less thought into their choice of partner. They may be more likely to grow apart from their spouse as they change and mature.
According to the National Survey of Family Growth, 48% of marriages from ages 15 to 24 end in divorce within 10 years, compared to 24% of marriages among couples ages 25 to 34. Research has consistently shown that the older a person is when they get married for the first time, the more likely their marriage is to succeed. Couples who wait until at least their late twenties tend to have greater relationship satisfaction, more financial stability, better communication skills, and greater maturity – all factors that increase marital success.
| Age at First Marriage | Divorce Rate within 10 Years |
|---|---|
| 15 – 24 years old | 48% |
| 25 – 34 years old | 24% |
Education Level
Another demographic factor that influences divorce rates is the education level of the couple. Studies show that couples in which one or both partners have higher levels of education are less likely to get divorced. For instance, according to the National Center for Health Statistics, 78% of college graduates who married in the early 2000s were still married after a decade compared to only 40% of couples who did not complete high school.
There are a few reasons why additional education may lead to greater marital stability. Those with college degrees typically marry later in life. They also are likely to have better communication skills, greater earnings and financial stability, more relationship role models, and greater problem-solving abilities – all advantages when it comes to married life. The data shows that the more educated a couple is, the lower their chances of divorcing.
| Education Level | Likelihood of Divorce within 10 Years |
|---|---|
| Did not complete high school | 40% |
| High school graduates | 54% |
| Some college | 46% |
| College graduates | 22% |
Income Level
A couple’s income level and financial stability also play a role in marital success. Research consistently shows that couples with higher household incomes have lower divorce rates. In part, this is because money is one of the top causes of stress and conflict within marriages. Couples living in poverty or struggling with debt face added strain and difficulty. Financial pressures can negatively impact their relationships.
An analysis by the National Marriage Project found that couples in the bottom 25% income bracket are more than three times as likely to divorce as couples in the top 25% income bracket. Stable finances allow couples to be less stressed, afford counseling if needed, have financial breathing room during difficult times, and avoid arguments over money – all advantages when it comes to avoiding divorce.
| Income Level | Likelihood of Divorce |
|---|---|
| Bottom 25% income bracket | 37% |
| Middle 50% income bracket | 22% |
| Top 25% income bracket | 11% |
Geographic Location
Divorce rates also vary significantly depending on geographic location within the United States. Some states have much lower average divorce rates than others. According to Census data, the states with the lowest divorce rates are:
- Massachusetts
- New Jersey
- New York
- Connecticut
- Minnesota
These states have divorce rates around 7 to 8 per 1,000 residents. Meanwhile, the states with the highest average divorce rates include:
- Arkansas
- Oklahoma
- Alabama
- Kentucky
- Alaska
These states have average divorce rates of 12 to 13 divorces per 1,000 residents. The reasons behind these regional differences are complex, but factors like lower average education levels and income levels in Southern states may play a role.
Religious Affiliation
Religious affiliation is another demographic factor that is linked to divorce rates. Regular participation in religious services and strong religious faith are associated with lower divorce risk, likely because they increase marital commitment, satisfaction, and support.
An analysis by the Barna Research Group found that couples who consider their faith very important and regularly attend religious services together have a divorce rate that is over 30% lower than average. However, it depends on the specific religion. Conservative Protestants and Catholics tend to have lower divorce rates than the religiously unaffiliated, while Jews and mainline Protestants fall somewhere in the middle.
| Religious Affiliation | Likelihood of Divorce |
|---|---|
| Conservative Protestants | 26% |
| Mainline Protestants | 33% |
| Catholics | 28% |
| Jewish | 39% |
| No religious affiliation | 46% |
Premarital Cohabitation
Whether a couple lives together before marriage is also linked to divorce rates. Contrary to popular belief, research consistently shows that couples who cohabitate before marriage actually have a higher divorce rate than couples who do not. According to one study, couples who live together before marriage have a 33% higher chance of divorcing within 10 years compared to couples who did not cohabitate.
There are several reasons why premarital cohabitation may increase divorce risk. It can lead to more acceptance of divorce, decreased commitment, poorer communication once married, greater sexual permissiveness, and unclear personal boundaries. Approaching marriage more gradually without living together first may lay a stronger foundation for a lasting relationship.
| Premarital Cohabitation | Likelihood of Divorce within 10 Years |
|---|---|
| Did not cohabitate | 15% |
| Cohabitated before marriage | 20% |
Number of Prior Marriages
Being in a first marriage versus a higher-order marriage also affects divorce probability. While 30-40% of first marriages end in divorce, the rate jumps drastically for subsequent marriages. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 48% of second marriages and a whopping 65% of third marriages end in divorce.
There are several factors that contribute to higher divorce rates in second and third marriages. Partners tend to be older, increasing health problems. They may have complex family situations with stepchildren and ex-spouses that can cause tension. Remarriages also involve integrating previously established households and finances.
| Marriage Order | Likelihood of Divorce |
|---|---|
| First marriage | 30-40% |
| Second marriage | 48% |
| Third marriage | 65% |
Length of Marriage
The length of a marriage also impacts the chances that it will end in divorce. While it may seem counterintuitive, the divorce rate is actually highest very early on in marriages. According to a study published in Marriage & Family Review, couples face the greatest risk of divorcing within the first 5 years of marriage.
The risk declines significantly after the five year mark. After 10 years of marriage, the divorce rate drops to around 20%. Couples who make it through the vulnerable early years have built a solid foundation and are less likely to split up as time goes on. Relationships become more stable over time as couples become more committed and invested in the marriage.
| Marriage Length | Likelihood of Divorce |
|---|---|
| Less than 5 years | 30% |
| 5 – 10 years | 20% |
| 10 – 15 years | 13% |
| 15 – 20 years | 9% |
| Over 20 years | 5% |
Presence of Children
Whether or not a married couple has children also impacts their likelihood of divorce. Interestingly, the divorce rate is actually lower for couples with children than for childless couples. According to a study in the Journal of Marriage and Family, couples without children are 70% more likely to get divorced than those with children.
There are several reasons having children may strengthen marriages. Kids give couples a sense of meaning and purpose. The demands of parenthood can also encourage couples to stick together. The financial and emotional costs of splitting up also increase when children are involved. However, this protective effect only lasts while the children are young. Once they grow up, the divorce rate for couples with children matches that of childless couples.
| Children | Likelihood of Divorce |
|---|---|
| No children | 70% higher than average |
| With children under age 18 | Average or lower |
| With adult children | Average |
Race and Ethnicity
There are also some racial and ethnic differences when it comes to divorce rates. Overall, the divorce rate in America is around 40 to 50%. However, it is lower for certain racial groups.
Asian Americans have the lowest divorce rate at only 20%. Experts believe cultural stigma against divorce and strong family ties contribute to greater marital stability. Following them, Hispanic and Latino Americans have a divorce rate around 25 to 30%. African Americans have an average divorce rate of around 45%. Among whites, the rate is closer to 50%, highest among Americans of European ancestry.
| Race/Ethnicity | Likelihood of Divorce |
|---|---|
| Asian Americans | 20% |
| Hispanic/Latino Americans | 25-30% |
| African Americans | 45% |
| White Americans | 50% |
Conclusion
While divorce rates in America remain significant, they do vary across demographics. Factors like age, income, education level, geography, and race impact couple’s risk of marital instability and divorce. The groups least likely to divorce include couples who marry later in life at age 25+, have a college degree, earn higher incomes, live in Northeastern states, regularly attend religious services, did not cohabitate prior to marriage, are in their first (vs. second or third+) marriage, and have been married 10+ years.
Understanding these risk factors can help couples make wise choices and better prepare for long-lasting marital success. While no couple is divorce-proof, being aware of potential pitfalls and taking preventative measures can greatly increase the odds of a stable, lifelong marriage.