Marriage is a sacred union between two people, but unfortunately, many marriages end in divorce. Researchers have identified several factors that predict whether a marriage will end in divorce. The strongest predictors of divorce include marrying at a very young age, living together before marriage, coming from a divorced family, having children from previous relationships, financial troubles, lack of education, and infidelity. However, no single factor can definitively predict if a marriage will end. Divorce is complex and often involves a combination of factors. But understanding the key predictors can help couples work to strengthen their marriage.
What are some common predictors of divorce?
Some factors that predict a higher likelihood of divorce include:
Marrying young
Couples who marry under age 25, especially women, have a higher risk of eventually divorcing. Marrying young means spouses may still be discovering themselves and changing rapidly, causing growing pains in the marriage. Immaturity and idealism can strain the relationship over time.
Cohabitation before marriage
Living together before marriage is linked to higher divorce rates. This may be because cohabiters are less traditional and less committed to the institution of marriage. The reasons for moving in together (convenience, testing the relationship) may also predict worse marital outcomes.
Coming from a divorced family
Adults whose parents divorced are significantly more likely to get divorced themselves, perhaps modeling that behavior. Children of divorce may also have less example of committed marriage and coping skills.
Premarital childbirth and children from previous relationships
Having a child outside of marriage or bringing kids from past relationships into a marriage is correlated with divorce. The difficulties of blending families and extra stress of an unplanned pregnancy may strain the marriage.
Lower education and income levels
Individuals without a high school degree are more likely to get divorced. Financial struggles added to a marriage also increase strife and the odds of divorce. Education and income may impact maturity, communication skills, and ability to handle stress.
Lack of religious affiliation
Regularly attending religious services is linked to lower divorce rates. Shared faith may help reinforce values and commitment to the marriage. Religion discourages behaviors like infidelity which lead to divorce.
Infidelity
Adultery is one of the most commonly reported causes of divorce. Cheating shatters trust and severely damages commitment between spouses. Forgiveness and repairing the marriage after infidelity is difficult.
How strong is each predictor of divorce?
Researchers have attempted to quantify how much each factor predicts divorce rates. Some of the strongest predictors include:
Cohabitation
Couples who lived together before marriage had a 33% higher chance of divorce compared to couples who did not cohabit, according to a University of Denver study.
Age at Marriage
A University of Utah study found that for each year a marriage was delayed, the chance of divorce declined 11%. Marrying after age 25 dramatically reduced divorce risk.
Premarital Birth
Having a baby together before marrying raised divorce rates 24% to 47% based on various studies. Unwed parents lack the commitment and readiness marriage brings.
Parental Divorce
A Pennsylvania State University study determined adult children of divorce were 40% more likely to get divorced themselves compared to those whose parents stayed married.
Religious Attendance
A Columbia University study said couples who regularly attended religious services were 47% less likely to divorce than non-attendees. Shared faith improves marital commitment and satisfaction.
Infidelity
Affairs were the #1 reason given for divorce, cited in roughly 20% of all cases according to a study by the University of Chicago. Trust is almost impossible to rebuild after infidelity.
How do these predictors interact and combine?
Rarely is just one factor at play when a marriage ends in divorce. More often it is a combination of issues eroding the marriage. For example:
- A couple may have married young, cohabited first, and had a child before marrying – 3 big risk factors.
- Money troubles and differences in education levels may lead to constant conflict.
- A lack of family support from parental divorce and no shared faith leaves the couple ill-equipped to handle challenges.
- An affair by one partner then becomes the final straw leading to divorce.
Two people from divorced homes who marry young after living together and having a baby are extremely high-risk. But even more “normal” pairings can dissolve with job loss, addiction, trauma, or growing apart over time. Every couple faces challenges, so marital success is often determined by skills in communication, conflict resolution, and forgiveness.
How can high-risk couples increase their chances of marital success?
No couple is destined for divorce. Though predictors give clues about likelihood, they are not a guarantee. Couples aware of risk factors for divorce can take proactive steps to strengthen their bond and beat the odds like:
Premarital counseling
Counseling sets realistic expectations, identifies potential issues, and equips couples with relationship skills. Learning to communicate, handle conflict, and understand each other better will help any marriage.
Hold off on having kids
Couples at higher risk due to young age, cohabitation, or unplanned pregnancy should consider waiting a few years to have kids. Enjoy time as a couple first.
Commit to fidelity
Affairs often end marriages. Make a pact to cut off flirtations, avoid compromising situations, and save sexual intimacy for your spouse.
Seek wise advice
Find mentors who will hold you accountable, give guidance when needed, and walk through struggles with you. Surround yourselves with other strong marriages.
Pursue spiritual growth together
Shared faith and values anchors a marriage. Study scripture, pray together, serve others – make God the center of your union.
Fight fair
All couples argue sometimes. Discuss ground rules, never make it personal, express how you feel using “I” statements, listen well, and take timeouts if needed. Don’t hold grudges.
Enrich your marriage
Go on regular dates, get away alone together, try new adventures, and cultivate a fun friendship. Fall in love all over again every single day.
Conclusion
While factors like marrying young or cohabiting increase divorce risk, they do not make divorce inevitable. Marriages are not statistics. With awareness of potential pitfalls, skills to handle conflict biblically, and constant effort, any couple can go the distance. The predictors just show what areas may need extra work. The good news is making that investment strengthens marriages and families for generations to come. With God at the center and a fierce commitment to each other, couples can build a lifelong love that passes every worldly test. What husband and wife wouldn’t cherish that prize?