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Which is faster Delta or Omicron?

The Covid-19 pandemic brought about several concerning variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, with Delta and Omicron emerging as two of the most transmissible and prevalent strains. Understanding the differences between Delta and Omicron is crucial, as their varying characteristics have significant impacts on infectiousness, severity, and our ability to combat them.

Transmission Speed

One key difference between Delta and Omicron is their transmission rates – how quickly they spread from person to person. Multiple studies have shown Omicron to be significantly more transmissible than Delta and the original SARS-CoV-2 strain.

For example, research from the UK Health Security Agency found that household transmission rates were higher among Omicron cases compared to Delta cases, with Omicron spreading more than twice as quickly. This increased transmissibility is likely due to mutations in Omicron’s spike protein that enable it to more efficiently bind to and enter human cells.

Further evidence comes from epidemiological data tracking Omicron’s spread. Within weeks of emerging, Omicron outpaced Delta as the dominant global variant due to its rapid growth advantage. The following table illustrates this by comparing the doubling time of Delta vs Omicron during their initial surges:

Variant Doubling Time
Delta ~7 days
Omicron 2-3 days

Omicron’s significantly faster doubling time reflects its higher reproductive rate compared to Delta. This enabled it to rapidly outcompete Delta infections globally within a matter of weeks.

Immune Evasion

Another key factor in Omicron’s transmission speed is its increased ability to evade immunity from vaccines and prior infection compared to Delta.

Studies have shown Omicron has extensive mutations in regions targeted by neutralizing antibodies induced by vaccines or natural infection. This allows the variant to bypass some of the immunological defenses that successfully contained Delta.

For example, research from Africa Health Research Institute in South Africa indicated a 41-fold decrease in neutralizing antibody titers against Omicron compared to the original strain in fully vaccinated individuals. This substantial reduction in neutralization contributes to increased breakthrough infections.

However, other immunological defenses such as T-cell immunity seem less impacted against Omicron. While this does not prevent infection as well, it likely contributes to Omicron’s reduced severity compared to Delta.

Infectious Period

The infectious period – the time someone can transmit the virus to others – may also differ between Delta and Omicron.

Some early evidence suggests Omicron may have a shorter infectious period compared to Delta. Researchers in Singapore found that Omicron viral loads may peak and then decline faster than Delta infections. Peak virus levels were similar but decreased more rapidly, with an average infectious period of 3-5 days for Omicron versus 7-10 days for Delta.

However, the precise infectious period length remains uncertain as more data emerges. Other studies have shown a similar or slightly longer period for Omicron. But overall, findings indicate the extremely rapid growth of Omicron outweighs any differences in infectious period duration compared to Delta.

Severity

While highly transmissible, most evidence indicates Omicron causes less severe illness and reduced risk of hospitalization compared to Delta infections, particularly in vaccinated individuals.

For example, research from the UK Health Security Agency found the risk of hospital admission was approximately 50-70% lower for Omicron cases compared to Delta cases after adjusting for vaccine status and age. Similarly, studies from research groups in Scotland and South Africa found approximately 2/3 reduction in hospitalizations for Omicron compared to Delta.

However, assessments of severity must also consider transmissibility – a virus that spreads twice as quickly will impact many more people than one that only moderately faster but is much more severe. As such, the overall public health burden remains significant during Omicron waves due to the sheer volume of total infections.

Ability to Escape Vaccines

While vaccination remains protective against severe disease, Omicron is more capable of evading vaccine-induced immunity than Delta.

As mentioned earlier, Omicron’s extensive mutations enable it to partially bypass the neutralizing antibodies generated by vaccination. Multiple studies have shown two doses of mRNA vaccines or a single dose of viral vector vaccines like Johnson & Johnson have significantly reduced effectiveness against Omicron infection compared to Delta.

However, vaccine effectiveness seems to improve substantially following booster doses. For example, UK data found mRNA booster shots restored vaccine efficacy against symptomatic Omicron infection to around 70-75%, comparable to the protection vaccines provided against Delta.

Therefore, while Omicron is adept at circumventing immunity from the initial vaccine series, protection can be enhanced via boosters. This underscores the importance of booster shots, especially with Omicron as the dominant global variant.

Ability to Reinfect

In addition to evading vaccine immunity, Omicron also demonstrates an increased capacity to infect people who were previously infected with COVID-19 compared to Delta.

South African epidemiologists tracked suspected reinfections during their Omicron and Delta waves. They found suspected reinfections rose sharply during Omicron prevalence compared to periods where Delta dominated.

Researchers in Qatar also observed significantly higher rates of reinfection during Qatar’s Omicron wave than their previous Delta wave. Reinfection was determined by positive PCR tests 90+ days apart.

These findings indicate Omicron is less impeded by natural immunity from prior infection compared to Delta. This is likely again due to Omicron’s immune-evading mutations that enable it to bypass post-infection antibodies and immune defenses.

Conclusions

In summary, data clearly demonstrates Omicron is significantly more transmissible and immune-evasive compared to the Delta variant.

Key reasons for Omicron’s rapid spread include:

  • More efficient binding to human cells
  • Shorter doubling time of 2-3 days vs 7 days for Delta
  • Increased breakthrough infections due to immune escape
  • Rapid growth outweighs potentially shorter infectious period

However, Omicron also appears less severe than Delta, particularly in vaccinated individuals. This may be due to residual T-cell immunity that prevents severe outcomes even if neutralizing antibodies are bypassed.

Vaccines also continue to provide substantial protection against severe disease and hospitalization during Omicron waves, especially with boosters. But the variant’s immune evasion does lead to meaningfully reduced effectiveness against infection compared to high efficacy rates against Delta.

In conclusion, while differences exist between Delta and Omicron, Omicron’s exceptionally high transmissibility and growth advantage have allowed it to rapidly overtake Delta worldwide. Maximizing population immunity through increased vaccination and sensible public health measures remain key to controlling circulation of both concerning variants.