The threat of nuclear war is a sobering reality in today’s complex geopolitical landscape. With multiple nations possessing nuclear arsenals and tensions frequently running high, the question of where a nuclear strike is most likely to occur is an important one to consider. Though no one wants to imagine such a catastrophic event, analyzing the risk factors can help us work to prevent it. In this article, we will examine some of the regions and countries around the world that experts believe are the most likely targets for a nuclear attack.
Hot Spots Based on Nuclear Capabilities and Tensions
Some areas of the world are at greater risk of nuclear attack than others due to the nuclear capabilities of regional powers and ongoing tensions between nations. Here are some of the hottest spots according to nuclear security analysts:
Asia
Asia contains three nuclear-armed powers—China, India, and Pakistan—that have had historical animosities and military conflicts. The unresolved territorial disputes between China and India in regions like Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin continue to flare up tensions. The long-running Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan is another nuclear flashpoint. Any war between these nations, whether intentional or accidental, could potentially go nuclear.
Middle East
The Middle East contains one nuclear-armed nation, Israel, that is engaged in an ongoing conflict with Iran. Iran does not currently have nuclear weapons but is suspected of pursuing them. Israel has vowed to stop Iran from obtaining nukes at any cost. Saudi Arabia has also left open the possibility of acquiring its own nuclear deterrent if Iran goes nuclear, which could set off an alarming regional arms race. All these factors mean the Middle East remains a very unstable region regarding nuclear threats.
Korean Peninsula
North Korea’s aggressive pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles has raised tensions on the Korean peninsula to very dangerous levels. North Korea is estimated to have 20-60 nuclear warheads and has continued missile testing despite international condemnation. Its hostile relationship with the U.S. and South Korea means a serious conflict could arise. Any war would put the South Korean capital of Seoul in immediate danger from North Korean artillery and nukes.
Nuclear Targets Based on Population and Infrastructure
In general, densely populated cities and areas with major military or industrial facilities are seen as the most likely targets for nuclear strikes. Destroying major population centers can yield heavy casualties while hitting key infrastructure can cripple a nation’s ability to function militarily and economically. Based on these criteria, here are some of the top nuclear targets:
United States
In the event of a nuclear war with Russia or China, the most likely targets in the continental U.S. include:
- New York City
- Washington D.C.
- Los Angeles
- Chicago
- San Francisco Bay Area
Overseas military bases in Europe and Asia would also be at risk.
Russia
Major Russian cities in the crosshairs of U.S. nuclear forces would likely include:
- Moscow
- Saint Petersburg
- Novosibirsk
- Yekaterinburg
China
The Chinese urban areas most vulnerable to nuclear attack by the U.S. include:
- Beijing
- Shanghai
- Guangzhou
- Shenzhen
India and Pakistan
As rivals, India and Pakistan would likely target each other’s major cities in a nuclear exchange:
- New Delhi, India
- Mumbai, India
- Islamabad, Pakistan
- Lahore, Pakistan
United Kingdom
The UK would face the threat of Russian nukes detonating in:
- London
- Birmingham
- Manchester
- Military bases like RAF Fylingdales
France
Major French cities in danger of nuclear bombing include:
- Paris
- Marseille
- Lyon
- Toulouse
Japan
As a close U.S. ally, Japan would likely be a target of Chinese or North Korean nukes. Major Japanese cities at risk:
- Tokyo
- Yokohama
- Osaka
- Nagoya
South Korea
North Korean nuclear forces would be able to strike:
- Seoul
- Busan
- Incheon
- Daegu
Nuclear Risk by Country
The table below summarizes the relative risk of nuclear attack for some of the major countries based on their strategic importance, relations with nuclear powers, and other factors:
| Country | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Ukraine | High |
| Taiwan | High |
| South Korea | High |
| Japan | Moderate-High |
| India | Moderate-High |
| Pakistan | Moderate-High |
| Israel | Moderate |
| United Kingdom | Moderate |
| France | Moderate |
| United States | Moderate |
| Russia | Moderate |
| China | Moderate |
| Australia | Low |
| Canada | Low |
| Brazil | Low |
Preventing Nuclear War
While the threat remains real, a nuclear war can still be prevented through diplomacy, de-escalation of conflicts, arms control treaties, and other peaceful solutions. The high costs of building ever-larger nuclear arsenals could be directed instead to pressing global issues like climate change, pandemics, poverty, and education. As long as nuclear weapons exist, however, the possibility of intentional or accidental nuclear war persists. Eliminating them worldwide remains the surest way to avert catastrophe. Until then, we must work to manage nuclear threats wisely and humanely.
Conclusion
Based on the nuclear capabilities, strategic interests, and regional tensions of nations, experts judge South Korea, Taiwan, Ukraine, India, Pakistan, the Middle East, and the Korean peninsula to be among the regions at greatest risk of nuclear hostilities currently. However, any conflict between nuclear powers has the potential to escalate rapidly. All nations with nuclear weapons remain vulnerable to some level of threat. While total nuclear disarmament may not be immediately feasible, stabilization through arms reductions and improved relationships must remain priorities. With caution, communication, and compassion, we can hopefully continue averting the nightmare of full-scale nuclear war.