Relationships are complicated and every couple is different. However, research has shown there are some patterns that emerge in when relationships tend to struggle or fail. In this article, we’ll take a data-driven look at the years when relationships are most likely to end.
The 3-5 Year Itch
One of the most well-known patterns is the “3-5 year itch.” This refers to the finding that many relationships start to struggle or end around the 3-5 year mark. Some key stats:
- One study found the average marriage lasted just over 7 years before divorcing.
- Another study found the peak risk of divorce was around the 4 year mark.
- 33% of divorces occur within the first 5 years.
There are a few reasons why the 3-5 year mark seems to be make-or-break for many relationships:
- The early infatuation stage wears off. The excited butterflies and new relationship energy start to fade, leading to boredom.
- Major life changes happen around this time, like having kids or career transitions. The stress can expose cracks in a relationship.
- People start to see their partner’s flaws more clearly and unrealistic expectations wear away.
- Couples get stuck in routines and stop trying to impress each other or make the relationship special.
The 3-5 year itch phenomenon highlights the need to work hard to keep relationships strong once that initial glow wears off. Effort needs to be made to keep things fresh and handle any major life changes as a team. Counseling can also help couples overcome challenges and improve communication skills. If both partners are willing to adapt and commit, it’s possible to push through the danger zone.
When Kids Leave Home
Another high-risk time for divorce is when the children leave home. This is known as the “empty nest” period. Key statistics:
- The divorce rate spikes for couples in their 50s once their youngest child turns 18.
- Most divorces happen when the wife is between 49-54 and the husband is between 55-59.
- Over 50% of divorces occur in couples married between 20-25 years.
There are several reasons the empty nest can damage relationships:
- Losing the parental identity creates an emotional crisis and feelings of grief. This causes tension between partners.
- Without kids at home, spouses realize how little they have in common and how much the relationship has changed.
- Spouses start leading more independent lives and grow apart emotionally.
- One partner may hit a midlife crisis and seek change or excitement outside the marriage.
Coping with the empty nest requires reconnecting as a couple and discussing future dreams. Seeking counseling, joining groups or trying new activities together can help navigate this transition. However, sometimes couples realize they’ve grown too far apart and decide to separate.
Later-Life Divorce
Although less common, divorce rates have been increasing for older adults over 65. Reasons include:
- Increased life expectancies mean spouses are spending more years together.
- Shifting societal norms are reducing stigma around divorce.
- More financial independence allows seniors to leave unhappy marriages.
- The caregiving stress of one partner’s declining health can damage relationships.
Overall, about 1 in 4 divorces now involve adults 50 or older. However, chances of divorce tend to go down the longer a couple stays married. 60% of couples who make it to their 25th anniversary go on to stay married for life.
The 7-Year Itch Revised
In summary, while every relationship is different, the key danger years seem to be:
- Around the 3-5 year mark as the honeymoon period ends
- When the last child leaves home
- Retirement years as couples spend more time together
However, another study found the 7-year itch is still real, just delayed. Modern couples tend to divorce around the 8th year of marriage on average, a little later than in the past. So staying vigilant and proactively working on the relationship may help overcome the 7-year itch, whichever year it strikes.
The Pandemic Effect
How has Covid-19 impacted divorce rates? It’s complicated:
- In 2020, divorce filings dropped as courts closed and couples focused on urgent needs.
- However, one survey found 34% of married adults considered divorce during quarantine.
- Another study saw 34% of couples say lockdown had a negative effect on their relationship.
- Couples and family therapists saw more demand for services too.
Many experts predict a post-pandemic “divorce boom” is coming, as strained couples start emerging from lockdown life. The unique stress of the pandemic exacerbated existing issues for couples and will likely lead to some delayed divorces down the road.
Which Couples Are Most Likely to Divorce?
While the most common times for divorce are in the early and late years of marriage, as discussed above, several other factors influence a couple’s risk of splitting up:
- Age – Those who marry young, especially in their teens or early 20s, are more likely to divorce.
- Education – Couples with lower levels of education have higher divorce rates.
- Finances – Money problems, debt, and financial stress correlate strongly with divorce risk.
- Background – Children of divorce and people with multiple past relationships or marriages are more likely to divorce again.
- Religion – Those who identify as non-religious have higher divorce rates than those who actively practice a religion.
- Kids – Couples with children have a slightly lower risk of divorce than childless couples.
However, these factors simply change the odds – divorce can still happen to anyone. And being aware of risk factors can help couples be proactive about strengthening their bond.
US Divorce Rates Over Time
Divorce rates rose across the 20th century, peaked around 1980, and have fallen since then. Here is a look at the divorce rate per 1000 married women in the US over the decades:
| Year | Divorce Rate |
|---|---|
| 1920 | 1.6 |
| 1940 | 2.0 |
| 1960 | 2.2 |
| 1980 | 5.3 |
| 2000 | 3.7 |
| 2019 | 2.7 |
Rising rates were likely due to societal shifts like more women in the workplace, greater financial independence, and changing ideas about marriage and fulfillment. Since peaking in the 1980s, divorce rates have dropped again. Experts cite factors like later marriages, birth control, higher education, and greater selectivity in long-term partners.
Divorce Rate By Generation
Currently, the divorce rate varies significantly across generations:
- Baby boomers (born 1946-64): 24% have been divorced at least once.
- Gen X (born 1965-80): 30% divorced.
- Millennials (born 1981-96): 16% divorced.
Millennials have so far had the lowest rates of divorce of any modern generation. They are marrying later, taking more time to choose partners, and have more egalitarian relationships and shared earning power. However, as the generation ages, divorce rates may rise closer to previous generations.
Can Divorce Be Predicted?
Can you predict if a couple will end up divorcing? Relationship experts point to several key signs that may indicate a marriage is headed for divorce.
- Frequent destructive arguments
- Lack of communication
- Dishonesty or infidelity
- Loss of intimacy
- Controlling or abusive behaviors
- Financial difficulties
- Substance abuse
- Differing vision on important values like kids
- Constant disappointment or negativity about the relationship
- Talking about divorce frequently
However, divorce is still hard to predict definitively, as couples can sometimes turn things around. If both partners are committed to change through counseling or workshops, even relationships that seem headed for divorce can sometimes be repaired. But it takes effort from both people.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while divorce can happen at any point, the most common danger years are around 3-5 years, when the kids leave home, and in later-life during retirement. Staying intentional about keeping the spark alive and seeking help at the first signs of trouble can help couples overcome the rough patches. With commitment, understanding and hard work, it’s possible to beat the odds and avoid becoming another divorce statistic.