The United States has always been a mobile country, with people packing up their lives and moving across state lines in search of better opportunities. But in recent years, domestic migration patterns have started to shift in noticeable ways. Some states that were once magnets for new residents are now experiencing net outflows of population, while other states are seeing surges in people moving in. So which states are more people flocking to today, and what’s behind these changing migration trends?
Sun Belt states are the big winners for domestic migration
If you look at total state-to-state migration flows over the past decade, most of the fastest-growing destination states are located in the Sun Belt region of the southern and western U.S. States like Florida, Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina have consistently gained tens of thousands of new residents each year from other parts of the country. The mild winters, lower costs of living, and strong job growth in urban hubs like Phoenix, Dallas, and Tampa make these states highly desirable places to relocate.
Florida gained the most residents from other states during the 2010s, attracting a net 232,000 new migrants per year on average. Texas came in second, adding nearly 150,000 domestic migrants per year. Other top gaining states included North Carolina, Arizona, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and Nevada.
| State | Average Annual Net Domestic Migration, 2010-2019 |
|---|---|
| Florida | 232,000 |
| Texas | 148,000 |
| North Carolina | 50,000 |
| Arizona | 49,000 |
| South Carolina | 36,000 |
| Tennessee | 28,000 |
| Georgia | 27,000 |
| Nevada | 21,000 |
Many of these southern and western states have also seen extremely rapid population growth in recent decades thanks to natural increases (births over deaths) and international migration. But domestic relocation has been a major contributor to their growth – and an important source of human capital and economic vitality.
Northeastern and Midwestern states face declines
On the flip side, many states in the Northeast and Midwest have experienced net outflows of residents to other parts of the country. New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Michigan, Ohio, Connecticut and Pennsylvania have all lost tens of thousands of residents annually to domestic migration this decade.
Economic stagnation and demographic decline are key factors in the exodus from many of these states. Industries like manufacturing have declined, job creation has been weak, and young college graduates often move away in search of better opportunities. Cold winters, high taxes and housing costs have also motivated people to move out of the Northeast to cheaper and warmer parts of the country.
Here are the states that had the biggest average annual net losses from domestic migration between 2010-2019:
| State | Average Annual Net Domestic Migration, 2010-2019 |
|---|---|
| New York | -180,000 |
| Illinois | -105,000 |
| New Jersey | -55,000 |
| Michigan | -40,000 |
| Ohio | -35,000 |
| Connecticut | -26,000 |
| Pennsylvania | -25,000 |
The Northeast and Midwest remain densely populated and economically productive regions. But when it comes to attracting Americans to move from other states, they are losing steam compared to faster-growing Sun Belt locales.
Some states have shifting migration patterns
Beyond these long-standing regional migration trends, the mobility patterns in some states have shifted noticeably in the last decade. States like California, New York and Illinois used to be magnets for domestic migration – but more recently have been experiencing net outflows. Meanwhile, states like Texas, Oregon and Colorado have accelerated their gains.
California is a striking example of this reversal. During the 1990s and 2000s, the state attracted hundreds of thousands of net new domestic migrants each year, driven by Silicon Valley’s tech boom and Southern California’s temperate climate. But escalating housing costs have eroded California’s affordability, while its high taxes, regulations and congestion have caused more residents to seek greener pastures. From 2010-2019, California had average annual net domestic migration losses around 160,000.
Texas, in contrast, has consolidated its status as the new land of opportunity. With thriving metropolitan hubs like Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth powered by the energy and tech sectors, Texas gained nearly 350,000 more residents than it lost to other states between 2010-2019 – solidifying its role as America’s top domestic migration magnet.
Oregon has also accelerated its gains, attracting nearly 15,000 net new domestic migrants per year as high-skilled workers are drawn to Portland and its quality of life. Colorado, Washington, South Carolina and Idaho are some other states that have increased their allure to interstate migrants over the past decade.
Retirees still flock to traditional destinations
Another distinct driver of state-to-state migration is retirement. Warm southern states like Florida and Arizona have long attracted Midwestern and Northeastern retirees looking to enjoy warmer winters and lower costs of living. This trend remains strong today.
From 2010-2019, Florida gained an average of nearly 77,000 net new residents per year just from migration of adults age 60 and over. Arizona, South Carolina, North Carolina and Texas were other top retirement destinations based on senior migration patterns.
States like Florida and Arizona have benefited from an “amenity-based migration” of retired seniors who value the climate, lower taxes, recreational opportunities, and affordable housing these states offer. Retirees moving to traditional Sun Belt retirement havens still account for a sizable share of interstate migration each year.
| State | Average Annual Net Domestic Migration of Adults 60+, 2010-2019 |
|---|---|
| Florida | 77,000 |
| Arizona | 36,000 |
| South Carolina | 15,000 |
| North Carolina | 14,000 |
| Texas | 12,000 |
Domestic migration could reshape the electoral map
These shifting state-to-state migration patterns are starting to have political implications as well. Many of the states gaining migrants are traditionally Republican-leaning states like Texas, Arizona and South Carolina. States losing migrants like New York, Illinois and California are Democratic strongholds.
This mobility of Americans to more conservative states, especially in the South and Mountain West, could reshape the electoral map over time. As more electoral votes shift to reliably red states, it may alter the partisan balance in presidential elections and the Electoral College.
Domestic migration patterns reflect how Americans are “voting with their feet” for states that better match their priorities and values. This self-sorting dynamic is sorting Americans along political lines and amplifying the country’s political divisions.
The pandemic has slowed but not reversed mobility patterns
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021 created some unique dynamics for domestic migration. As the economy locked down, remote work expanded dramatically, and some urbanites moved to rural areas or smaller cities seeking more social distancing. Overall U.S. mobility rates declined in 2020.
But preliminary data shows the pandemic did not fundamentally alter the appeal of warmer, more affordable Sun Belt states. Florida, Arizona and Texas regained their status as top magnets for interstate movers in 2021, according to moving company data. Traditional Snowbird states like Florida and South Carolina have also resumed gains from retirees as pandemic concerns have eased post-vaccines.
While the pandemic shook up some mobility patterns, it did not dramatically reshape the domestic migration currents favoring the Sun Belt. With remote work untethering more Americans from offices, migration to lower-cost and warmer states may rise again. But vibrant, high-amenity cities like Austin and Denver are also poised to keep attracting individuals and families seeking dynamic job hubs.
Younger Americans are still moving West
Analyzing migration patterns by age cohorts also reveals some interesting trends. Americans between 30-39 years old are the most mobile age group, with nearly one in ten making an interstate move each year. Many of these millennials and younger Gen Xers move for education, jobs and affordable housing as they start families.
Younger Americans tend to flock to large Western metros with tech sectors and recreation. Cities like Denver, Seattle, Portland, Phoenix, and Salt Lake City have gained thousands of younger domestic migrants annually this decade. Tech hubs like Austin have also attracted youthful talent.
The table below shows the metro areas attracting the most net domestic migrants in their 30s from 2010-2019, according to Census population estimates data.
| Metro Area | Average Annual Net Domestic Migration of 30-39 Year-Olds, 2010-2019 |
|---|---|
| Phoenix, AZ | 12,000 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | 11,000 |
| Houston, TX | 10,000 |
| Atlanta, GA | 8,000 |
| Denver, CO | 8,000 |
| Seattle, WA | 8,000 |
| Austin, TX | 7,000 |
| Tampa, FL | 6,000 |
| Portland, OR | 5,000 |
For young professionals starting careers and families, these metro areas offer strong labor markets along with affordable suburbs and good schools. The West retains its allure as a land of opportunity for younger generations of Americans on the move.
Rising housing costs deter domestic migration to expensive metros
Housing affordability is a key factor influencing where Americans relocate today. Rising home values and rents in expensive coastal cities are making them less enticing destinations.
Expensive tech hubs like San Francisco and San Jose in California have seen more residents move out as home prices soar over $1 million. Low-tax states like Texas and Florida that make it easier to buy affordable homes have benefitted. Even cheaper suburbs and exurbs within metro areas are gaining migrants seeking deals.
Table below shows metro areas with the biggest net outflows of domestic migrants between 2018-2019, according to Census data. Unaffordable housing is a common theme.
| Metro Area | Net Domestic Migration, 2018-2019 |
|---|---|
| New York, NY | -278,000 |
| Los Angeles, CA | -210,000 |
| Chicago, IL | -106,000 |
| San Jose, CA | -24,000 |
| Bridgeport, CT | -23,000 |
| Honolulu, HI | -18,000 |
| San Francisco, CA | -16,000 |
| Seattle, WA | -15,000 |
Housing affordability is a key push factor driving residents out of expensive coastal metros and to more affordable alternatives, reshaping migration patterns.
Conclusion
Domestic migration trends continue to favor affordable Sun Belt states like Texas, Florida and the Carolinas that offer job growth and warm weather. The Northeast and Midwest are losing more residents to other parts of the country. This will shift more political power to the South and impact the Electoral College.
But migration patterns remain complex. Economic opportunities, housing costs, demographic change and quality of life all influence Americans’ decisions to move between states. Striking a balance between affordability, jobs and amenities will help states attract and retain residents in the years ahead.