As the autumn leaves begin to fall in Colorado, many residents are wondering what kind of winter is in store for 2023. Will it be unusually cold and snowy like last year, or mild and dry? Weather forecasters look at a variety of predictive factors to make their winter weather predictions each year.
What impacts winter weather in Colorado?
Colorado’s winter weather is influenced by a number of global and regional climate factors. Some of the key drivers include:
- El Niño/La Niña – These opposing weather patterns over the Pacific Ocean can influence winter storms and temperatures in Colorado. La Niña typically brings colder and wetter conditions.
- Arctic Oscillation – This describes the movement of Arctic air masses. When in a negative phase, cold Arctic air is more likely to move southward into the U.S., including Colorado.
- Jet stream – The position and strength of the jet stream impacts Colorado’s winter moisture and temperatures.
- Snow cover – Extensive early season snow cover can reinforce cold temperatures through its high reflectivity.
- Ocean temperatures – Warmer or cooler ocean surface temperatures in the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans can influence air masses affecting Colorado.
Understanding how these overlapping factors are trending provides the basis for winter weather predictions.
How do forecasters make predictions?
The National Weather Service employs meteorologists who specialize in long-range winter forecasting. They analyze global climate patterns, along with reviewing weather and ocean models to make their predictions. Some of their specific approaches include:
- Identifying trends in air/sea temperatures, atmospheric winds, and pressure systems
- Studying computer model simulations of different weather scenarios
- Looking at seasonal snow and precipitation forecasts
- Considering statistical correlations between fall weather events and upcoming winters
- Incorporating data like drought conditions and ice coverage
In addition, they collaborate with climate research centers and review information from other forecasters. Combining data, observation, and technology allows them to issue a winter weather outlook each year.
What is the winter outlook for Colorado this year?
In mid-October 2023, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center issued its official winter outlook for December 2023 through February 2024. For Colorado, the forecast favors drier and warmer than average conditions this winter.
Specifically, the outlook predicts Colorado has a 40-50% chance of above average temperatures and a 33-40% chance of below average precipitation for the winter months. This mild and dry pattern is expected to persist due to the ongoing La Niña climate pattern in the tropical Pacific.
However, the Climate Prediction Center did note their winter predictions do not reflect short-term weather events. Brief cold snaps and snowstorms are still likely to occur at times during the winter.
Historical winter temperature and precipitation in Denver, CO
| Winter period | Average temperature | Total precipitation |
|---|---|---|
| December 2022 – February 2023 | 32.1 F | 3.8 inches |
| December 2021 – February 2022 | 34.7 F | 2.6 inches |
| December 2020 – February 2021 | 33.4 F | 4.2 inches |
| December 2019 – February 2020 | 34.2 F | 3.9 inches |
| December 2018 – February 2019 | 31.8 F | 4.7 inches |
This table shows the observed winter temperature and precipitation in Denver over the past five winters. The outlook for 2023-2024 is for warmer and drier conditions than the historical averages.
What impacts might a warm, dry winter have on Colorado?
If the weather unfolds as predicted, the warm and dry conditions could have a range of impacts across Colorado:
- Reduced snowpack – With less precipitation, snowpack in the mountains could be below normal. This would impact spring runoff flows and summer water supplies.
- Increased wildfire risk – Lack of snow cover raises the fire risk going into spring and summer.
- Warmer temperatures – Unusually high temperatures could lead to poor skiing conditions at lower elevations.
- Emerging drought – Extended dryness along with warm temperatures could intensify drought across parts of Colorado.
- Low streamflows – Reduced snowmelt runoff could lead to low streamflows next summer, impacting fishing, boating, and rafting.
State and local officials may need to prepare for these conditions through fire management planning and drought mitigation efforts.
How accurate are winter weather predictions for Colorado?
Studies show winter outlooks can provide useful information, but the accuracy varies year to year. Looking back at a 10-year period:
- Temperature outlooks were correct about 60% of the time
- Precipitation outlooks were correct around 50% of the time
- The outlook was more accurate for warmer/cooler predictions compared to wetter/drier predictions
- The strongest predictive skill was for the southern and western U.S., including Colorado
The Climate Prediction Center estimates their winter outlooks are typically correct in about 60-70% of locations. However, they stress outlooks don’t predict seasonal snowfall or exactly how hot or cold it will get. The specific weather experienced can still differ substantially from the outlook due to natural variability.
How did recent outlooks verify for Colorado winters?
Looking back, winter outlooks for Colorado were fairly accurate over the past five years:
| Winter Period | Outlook | What Actually Occurred |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2018 – Feb 2019 | Increased chance of wetter than average | Denver total precipitation slightly above average |
| Dec 2019 – Feb 2020 | Equal chances of above/below avg temps and precipitation | Temp and precipitation near average |
| Dec 2020 – Feb 2021 | Increased chance of drier than average | Denver total precipitation below average |
| Dec 2021 – Feb 2022 | Increased chance of warmer and drier than average | Much warmer and drier than average |
| Dec 2022 – Feb 2023 | Increased chance of wetter than average | Denver total precipitation above average |
As this summary shows, the outlooks verified well for Colorado, especially when predicting warmer/cooler or wetter/drier than average tendencies.
How can you prepare for the upcoming winter?
Colorado residents can take the following steps to prepare for the expected warmer and drier winter:
- Check your home and infrastructure to prepare for extreme heat days. Test cooling equipment and insulation.
- Review fire safety. Clear flammable vegetation and create defensible space around your home.
- Practice water conservation early. Set up rain barrels and fix leaks to offset lack of precipitation.
- Prepare your landscape for drought conditions. Prioritize low water plants and mulching.
- Purchase snow tires and cold weather gear in case brief cold snaps still hit. Don’t be caught off guard by a polar vortex.
- Check livestock have appropriate shelter and food/water reserves.
While outlooks provide useful guidance on average conditions, it’s still important to be ready for extreme weather events throughout the winter.
Conclusion
In summary, the winter outlook for Colorado is tilted towards warmer and drier conditions, according to forecasters. This would increase the odds of drought, present fire risk, and potentially impact spring runoff. However, cold snaps and snowstorms remain possible due to natural variability. If the outlook verifies, Colorado residents will need to prepare for heat and minimal moisture. Historical evidence suggests about a 60-70% chance the outlook will be accurate. However, it is impossible to make an exact winter weather prediction for Colorado. Savvy planning involves being ready for a range of winter weather scenarios through the season.