USB (Universal Serial Bus) has been the standard for connecting devices like keyboards, mice, and storage drives to computers for over two decades. However, as data transfer speeds and power delivery requirements continue to increase, USB’s limitations are becoming more apparent. There’s growing consensus that USB will eventually be replaced by a new connectivity standard, but which one it will be and when exactly this transition will occur remain open questions.
Why does USB need to be replaced?
There are several reasons why USB is no longer adequate for the latest generation of electronic devices:
- Insufficient power delivery – USB has a maximum power output of 100W, but many modern devices like high-end laptops require more power. This is why bulky AC power adapters still exist.
- Speed limitations – The latest USB 3.2 standard only supports up to 20 Gbps data transfer speeds. As high bandwidth applications like 8K video become more commonplace, faster interfaces will be needed.
- Connector durability issues – The physical USB connectors and ports remain prone to damage during regular use.
- No native display capabilities – Display protocols like DisplayPort and HDMI have been layered on top of USB instead of being part of the core specification.
In summary, USB is no longer keeping pace with the speeds, power demands, and usability requirements of modern electronics. An alternative standard is needed to fully replace USB and meet the connectivity needs of the future.
What are the leading contenders to replace USB?
There are several new interconnect technologies aiming to become the “next USB.” Here are some of the leading contenders vying to replace USB:
| Technology | Speed | Power Delivery | Other Features |
|---|---|---|---|
| USB4 | Up to 40 Gbps | Up to 100W | Backward compatible with USB 3.2 and Thunderbolt 3 |
| Thunderbolt 4 | Up to 40 Gbps | Up to 100W | Low latency, supports up to two 4K displays |
| USB Type-C | Up to 20 Gbps | Up to 100W | Reversible plug, audio and video capabilities |
USB4
USB4 is essentially Thunderbolt 3 repackaged under the USB brand name. It offers 40 Gbps bandwidth and 100W power delivery while maintaining compatibility with existing USB 3.2 and Thunderbolt 3 devices. Intel originally developed Thunderbolt but is now sharing it with USB Promoter Group. However, the need for a USB4 controller chip increases costs for manufacturers.
Thunderbolt 4
Thunderbolt 4 is the latest version of Intel’s Thunderbolt spec. Like USB4, it provides 40 Gbps speeds and 100W power delivery. Thunderbolt 4 offers lower latency than USB4 and mandatory support for two 4K displays or one 8K display. But it has less backwards compatibility than USB4. Intel maintains tight control over Thunderbolt, hampering wider adoption.
USB Type-C
USB Type-C is a physical connector shape and underlying data protocol. Type-C ports can support various standards like USB 2.0, USB 3.2, Thunderbolt 3, and USB4. Benefits include reversibility and support for displaying video signals. But Type-C is just a connector/cabling standard – it doesn’t specify things like data rates or power delivery. Many Type-C ports don’t offer the fastest speeds.
Overall, USB4 and Thunderbolt 4 are the most likely candidates to fully replace USB given their technical merits. But continued collaboration between Intel and USB-IF will be needed to align efforts and prevent fragmentation.
What are the potential roadblocks to replacing USB?
While the limitations of USB are clear, there are still challenges to overcome before it can be completely phased out as the ubiquitous connectivity standard:
- Cost – Newer protocols like Thunderbolt require more expensive controllers and cables. This adds to the manfacturing costs of PCs and peripherals.
- Compatibility – A clean transition will require broad industry alignment around a new standard. There may be competing business interests.
- User familiarity – USB has massive consumer familiarity after over 20 years on the market. Some user education may be needed for a new standard.
- Power constraints – Higher speeds and power delivery capabilities are difficult to support on low-power devices like phones.
For USB’s replacement to be successful, these roadblocks will need to be overcome through extensive industry cooperation and potentially government initiatives. The transition will likely happen gradually over the next 5-10 years rather than overnight.
When will USB be completely replaced?
Opinions differ on exactly when USB will be made obsolete. Here are some predictions on the timeline:
| Expert | USB Replacement Timeline Prediction |
|---|---|
| Ross Rubin, Principal Analyst at Reticle Research | “At least 5-10 more years due to the need for accessories to catch up” |
| Jim McGregor, Principal Analyst at Tirias Research | “As early as 2025 for top-end systems, with full replacement by 2030” |
| Patrick Moorhead, Founder of Moor Insights & Strategy | “Will take at least 8-10 years for full adoption of a new standard” |
The consensus seems to be that USB still has somewhere between 5 and 10 years left before being deprecated. But in that timeframe, we should see the new standard (likely USB4 or Thunderbolt 4) gradually gain traction in high-end devices first. The transition will be more evolutionary than revolutionary given all the logistical hurdles.
2025-2027: Begins appearing in some premium laptops and gaming PCs
In the next 2-4 years, top-of-the-line computer systems will likely start adopting USB’s replacement for faster data transfers and improved power delivery. But traditional USB ports will probably still be included for backwards compatibility.
2028-2030: Gradual adoption across most new PC product categories
After a few years of market validation in premium devices, the new standard will start gaining wider adoption across all types of new computers. However, most peripherals and accessories will still use traditional USB.
2030 and beyond: Complete phase-out of USB
In the 2030s, USB’s replacement will have matured enough both technologically and economically to fully replace USB. By this point, even budget PCs and accessories will have transitioned to the new standard. USB may linger on in some legacy devices for a few more years but will effectively be obsolete for most use cases.
Conclusion
USB has had an exceptional run, but its limitations in speed, power delivery, and durability are becoming increasingly apparent. Within the next 10 years, expect to see USB gradually phased out in favor of a new interconnect technology like USB4 or Thunderbolt 4. This transition will start in premium devices first before trickling down to mainstream and budget products. Given the ubiquity of USB, a wholesale replacement will take time. But by the 2030s, USB will likely be relegated to the technological history books.