This is a complex question with no simple answer. On one hand, the number of wars between countries has declined significantly since World War II. Major powers like the United States, Russia and China have avoided direct military confrontation. Technology like nuclear weapons and economic globalization have reduced incentives for war. Many parts of the world have seen declines in other forms of violence like homicide, civil wars and terrorism.
On the other hand, armed conflicts continue in places like the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe. Developing countries face ongoing challenges with crime, political instability and human rights abuses. New technologies like cyber warfare and autonomous weapons raise concerns. Many experts argue that even with recent progress, the world remains far too violent.
How is “peace” defined and measured?
There is no universal definition of “peace” or single way to measure it. Relevant factors include:
- Wars between countries
- Civil wars and armed conflicts within countries
- Terrorism
- Homicides and violent crime rates
- Military spending
- Human rights conditions
- Genocides and mass atrocities
Researchers use different methodologies and indicators to assess these factors. For example, the Global Peace Index (GPI) ranks 163 countries based on 23 measures grouped into three domains: safety/security, ongoing conflict and militarization. The GPI and other indices like it allow comparisons over time, but remain imperfect measures.
Are interstate wars and conflict declining?
One of the most notable trends since 1945 has been a steep decline in wars between states. According to the Human Security Report Project, the number of state-based armed conflicts dropped over 40 percent from 1992 to 2007. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program recorded only 12 interstate wars from 2000-2010, compared to 65 from 1950-1989.
This “long peace” between major powers is historically unprecedented. The major drivers include:
- The destructive power of nuclear weapons makes direct war unthinkably costly.
- Alliances like NATO and economic integration deter conflict.
- International institutions like the U.N. and cooperation norms promote dialogue.
- Democratization and global development makes war less popular and viable.
The last war between great powers was in 1953 when the Korean War ended. The U.S., Russia, China and other leading economies are now economically and politically interdependent in ways that make military conflict vastly less likely.
Is the threat of nuclear war declining?
The arms race between the U.S. and Soviet Union during the Cold War raised the specter of nuclear annihilation. The number of nuclear weapons peaked in 1986 at almost 70,000, enough to destroy life on Earth many times over.
With the end of the Cold War, those stockpiles have declined substantially. According to the Federation of American Scientists, the U.S. and Russia now possess around 6,000 warheads each. The New START treaty limits each country to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads.
However, risks and tensions remain. Nine nations now have nuclear weapons. Conflicts between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, India and China, or the U.S. and North Korea could turn catastrophic. Accidents, miscalculations and rogue launches are also dangers. Complete nuclear disarmament currently looks unlikely.
Have civil wars and intrastate conflicts decreased?
While wars between nations have declined, fighting within countries continues at high levels. According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, there were 38 active armed conflicts in 2018. This included civil wars, insurgencies, communal violence and other forms of organized violence resulting in at least 25 battle-related deaths.
The Human Security Report Project found an 80 percent increase in the number of civil wars from 1960-1992, before declining from 1992 onward. The fall of the Soviet Union and end of Cold War proxy fights fueled conflicts, while peacekeeping missions and activism helped reduce them from the 1990s.
Many fragile states, especially in Africa, continue to suffer mass violence. Causes include resource competition, ethnic/religious tensions, weak institutions and poverty. The Syrian civil war beginning in 2011 demonstrates such conflicts can still become large-scale humanitarian disasters.
Are military coups and authoritarian governments in decline?
Military coups removing elected leaders were common during the Cold War, especially in newly independent states. The frequency has decreased in recent decades as democracy has spread. According to the Center for Systemic Peace, the average annual number of coups dropped from 15 in 1960-69 to 6 in 2000-2009.
However, unconstitutional seizures of power continue occurring. There were 4 successful coups from 2010-2018, in Mali, Thailand, Egypt and Zimbabwe. Attempted coups also take place frequently. Autocratic governments remain common across Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, parts of Asia and the former Soviet Union.
Is terrorism decreasing?
Terrorism can be difficult to define and measure. The Global Terrorism Database defines it as violence aimed at noncombatants to achieve political, social or religious goals. It documents over 180,000 terrorist incidents worldwide from 1970-2018.
The deadliness of terrorism increased in the early 2000s due to groups like al-Qaeda, before peaking in 2014. Deaths have declined significantly since then as groups like ISIS have weakened and counterterrorism efforts improved. However, the number of attacks remains high. Far-right terrorism is also a growing concern.
Are genocide and mass killings in decline?
The 20th century was plagued by mass atrocities. Estimates suggest communist regimes like the Soviet Union, China and Cambodia killed over 60 million civilians. Nazi Germany exterminated 6 million Jews in the Holocaust.
Genocides and politicides have declined since peaking in the 1980s, according to political scientist Barbara Harff. Her analysis shows around 40 episodes from 1955-2002, with just over 20 from 2003-2018. Increased human rights activism and norms against crimes against humanity may be deterring mass slaughter.
However, huge atrocities continue occurring. Conflicts in places like Rwanda, Bosnia, Darfur and Myanmar have killed hundreds of thousands since 1990. The technology to commit genocide remains and ethnic tensions persist around the world.
Are violent crime rates decreasing?
Homicide and violent crime rose globally from the 1960s to 1990s. Possible drivers included political instability, wars, rapid urbanization and the drug trade. Since 2000, homicides have declined substantially in nearly all regions.
Latin America still contends with high crime, but homicide rates in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and other countries have fallen in recent years. Declines in North America and Europe have brought homicide levels to historic lows. However, crimes like human trafficking persist.
The causes of declining violence include economic growth, rising education levels, aging populations, more police and tougher sentencing. But organized crime and economic shocks could potentially reverse these gains.
Is the scale of warfare decreasing?
Wars today are much less deadly on average than in the past. According to one estimate, around 5-10 million people died in conflict per decade in the early modern period when European powers battled for supremacy.
Death tolls fell significantly in the late 19th and 20th century as conquered territories became colonies rather than battlefields. The deadliest interstate wars of the 1900s killed 10-20 million – massive, but far less than earlier wars between major powers.
Weapons technology causes more destruction, but modern military discipline, tactics, infrastructure and medicine greatly improve battlefield survival rates. Just a few thousand combatants now die in most conflicts.
Are military expenditures falling?
Global military spending rose steadily during the Cold War, peaking around $1.7 trillion in 1987 (inflation-adjusted). It then declined until bottoming out at around $1.1 trillion in the late 1990s.
Spending has again risen due to 9/11 and ensuing conflicts, reaching $1.8 trillion in 2018. However, expenditures as a share of GDP have dropped, from over 4 percent in the late 1980s to around 2 percent now.
With the U.S. and Russia no longer engaged in an arms race, military budgets as a whole consume much less global resources than during the Cold War. But even current levels have opportunity costs and risks.
Is the international community getting more effective at conflict prevention and resolution?
The end of colonialism and proxy wars removed major drivers of conflict after the Cold War. International institutions like the U.N. got more involved in peacekeeping and post-conflict reconstruction.
Diplomatic efforts have yielded important successes like the Iran nuclear deal. Since the 1990s, negotiated settlements have helped end civil conflicts in places like Cambodia, El Salvador and Mozambique.
However, the U.N. remains hobbled by the divergent interests of major powers. Its peacekeepers also lack capacity and political backing. Great power tensions are rising once again. The world still lacks robust tools for preventing complex conflicts and enforcing peace settlements.
Is extreme poverty declining?
Poverty is a major driver of instability and conflict. Encouragingly, the share of people living in extreme poverty has fallen dramatically. According to the World Bank, over 1 billion fewer people subsisted on less than $1.90 per day in 2015 vs. 1990.
Increased globalization and economic integration has fueled development in East Asia, Latin America and other regions. Foreign aid and partnerships between poor countries and international financial institutions have also contributed.
However, sub-Saharan Africa remains mired in deep poverty. Fragile states like Afghanistan, Yemen and Haiti face huge obstacles to development. Even with recent progress, 10 percent of the world’s population still live on less than $1.90 per day.
Is the global population getting more educated?
Education is crucial for economic growth, social mobility and political stability. The global youth literacy rate rose from 83 to 91 percent from 1990 to 2015. Secondary school enrollment increased from 53 to 77 percent over the same period.
Mass education is changing societies across the developing world. Views increasingly reflect cosmopolitan values over parochial ones. Women participating in the workforce and public life reduces birth rates and gender inequality.
However, education access remains highly uneven both between and within countries. Almost 260 million children were still out of primary/secondary school in 2018, concentrated in poorer regions. Extremist violence also targets schools in places like Nigeria and Afghanistan.
Are human rights protections increasing?
Basic civil liberties like free speech, press freedom, due process and religious liberty uplift human dignity and well-being. Much of the world has become more free since the 1970s, with communist regimes collapsing and democracy spreading.
Today, 88 countries ranking “free” and 68 “partly free” by Freedom House’s measures. Regional institutions increasingly enforce human rights in the Americas, Europe and Africa. Social media empowers people to expose abuses.
Yet severe repression persists in states like China, Saudi Arabia, Syria and North Korea. Democratic reforms have stumbled in Turkey, Hungary and elsewhere. New technologies like surveillance and hacking endanger rights. Populism threatens protections for minorities.
Is gender equality increasing?
Patriarchal structures have subordinated women throughout history. But modern values and education are empowering women worldwide. Maternal mortality fell 44 percent from 1990 to 2015. Girls’ enrollment in primary school rose from 85 to 89 percent over the same period.
Women are participating more in the labor force, politics, civil society and public life. Movements against sexual violence have grown. Iceland, Mexico, Taiwan and other countries have elected female leaders.
Nevertheless, no nation has fully achieved gender equality. Women remain disadvantaged in wages, employment and safety. An estimated 650 million women worldwide were married as children. Backlashes imperil hard-won gains.
Conclusion
The dramatic decline of war between major powers is strong evidence that the world has become more peaceful in critical ways since the mid 20th century. The spread of democracy and human rights has also uplifted billions. However, armed conflict and political repression continue causing immense human suffering.
Ongoing threats like climate change and global pandemics could potentially destabilize societies. Technology raises risks along with potential benefits. Even with remarkable progress, realizing the vision of universal peace, justice and human flourishing remains a distant goal.
Peace is multidimensional – not just the absence of war, but the presence of justice. Whether humanity can continue building a more truly peaceful world order remains among the most vital questions of our time.