Christianity is the world’s largest religion, practiced by an estimated 2.2 billion people worldwide. But is this number growing, or is Christianity declining in the modern era? This is a complex question with no simple answer. Some data suggests Christianity is growing globally, especially in the developing world, while declining in the Western world. Other data suggests an overall decline. To understand the trends, we must look carefully at different measures of Christian affiliation and religiosity in various global regions.
Christianity’s Global Reach
Christianity has spread far beyond its origins in the Middle East to become a truly global religion. Today, roughly one-third of the global population identifies as Christian. Christians make up the majority population in 158 countries and territories spanning North and South America, Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, Australia and the Pacific. According to the Pew Research Center, as of 2010 Christians comprised:
- 31% of the population in Asia and the Pacific
- 37% in Europe
- 62% in North America
- 86% in Latin America and Caribbean
- 49% in Sub-Saharan Africa
So Christianity maintains a strong worldwide presence on every inhabited continent. But within this global reach, trends vary significantly by region. Gains in some areas mask declines in others.
Growth of Christianity in Developing World
While Christianity has declined in membership and influence in the Western world, it has grown rapidly in the global South. Africa, Asia and Latin America have seen surging Christian populations in recent decades. According to Pew Research, between 1910 and 2010:
- Christians grew from 9% to 63% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population.
- Christianity grew from 6% to 13% of the population in the Asia-Pacific region.
- Christianity grew from 94% to 93% of Latin America’s population.
Let’s look closer at the dynamics in these key developing regions:
Sub-Saharan Africa
The continent of Africa has seen tremendous Christian growth, with Christians increasing as a share of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population from 9% in 1910 to 63% in 2010. This reflects fast-paced conversion of native African populations to Christianity beginning in the early 20th century under European colonialism. It also reflects high birth rates among existing Christian populations. According to Pew Research, since 1910:
- Anglicans grew from 1.9 million to 30.8 million.
- Catholics grew from 1.9 million to 170.2 million.
- Independents (broad category of African-initiated churches) grew from 207,000 to 107.3 million.
Rapid Christian growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to continue in the coming decades due to high fertility rates among Christian Africans.
Asia and Pacific
Christianity is also growing quickly across diverse Asia-Pacific nations like China, India and Indonesia. Christians increased from 6% of Asia’s population in 1910 to 13% in 2010, comprising 9% of Southern Asia and 21% of East Asia according to Pew. Notable growth patterns include:
- Protestants in China grew from 700,000 to 58 million.
- Catholics in India grew from 1.6 million to 17.3 million.
- Protestants in Indonesia grew from 102,000 to 13.1 million.
This growth is linked to missionary efforts across the region and rising wealth/education levels enabling conversion. However, Christians remain a religious minority in the Asia-Pacific despite growth. Religious switching also remains less common in this culturally conservative region than Africa and Latin America.
Latin America
Christianity remains the dominant faith across Latin America and the Caribbean. The population identifying as Christian increased slightly from 94% in 1910 to 93% in 2010. However, there has been a shift from Catholics to Protestants:
- Catholics declined from 95% to 69% of Latin America’s population.
- Protestants grew from 1% to 19% of the region’s population.
This reflects significant religious switching towards Protestantism across the region since the 1950s, accelerated by the spread of Evangelical and Pentecostal churches. This trajectory is forecast to continue with Protestants potentially becoming a religious majority in Latin America by 2050.
Decline of Christianity in Europe and North America
In contrast to growth patterns in the global South, Christianity has experienced significant declines in Western nations over the past century. Europe was traditionally the heartland of Christianity, but religiosity and church membership have waned. North America remains relatively religious versus Western Europe, but Christianity has declined here too. According to Pew Research data since 1910:
- Christians declined from 95% to 76% of Europe’s population.
- Catholics declined from 74% to 24% in France.
- Protestants declined from 56% to 36% in the Netherlands.
- Christians declined marginally from 96% to 86% of the U.S. population.
- Catholics declined from 50% to 21% of Canada’s population.
Factors driving Christian decline include growing secularism, scientific rationalism, consumerism, and a postmodern distrust of institutions. There is also an openness to alternative spiritualities. Immigration flows from non-Christian regions have also contributed to lowering Christian percentages in North America and Western Europe.
Projected Global Trends
Looking ahead, global demographic projections forecast continued Christian growth in the developing world alongside continued decline in the West:
| Region | Estimated Christian % 2050 | Change from 2010 |
|---|---|---|
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 70% | +7% |
| Asia-Pacific | 11% | -2% |
| Latin America | 91% | -2% |
| Europe | 66% | -10% |
| North America | 77% | -9% |
Source: Pew Research Center
Highlights:
- Christianity will remain stable in Latin America and continue growing in Sub-Saharan Africa.
- Gradual declines expected in traditional Christian heartlands of Europe and North America.
- Asia-Pacific projected to have more modest Christian declines but remain predominantly non-Christian.
Factors like religious switching, immigration, and birth rates will determine actual trends. But the broad geographic patterns of Christian growth in the global South counterbalancing decline in the West is expected to continue.
Measuring Christian Affiliation and Commitment
The data above focuses on Christian affiliation – self-identification as a member of a Christian denomination. This measures breadth of global Christian identity. But rates of active Christian commitment and religiosity also matter when assessing Christianity’s changing influence.
On affiliation, 78% of Americans identified as Christian in 2007 versus 71% in 2014, suggesting a 7 percentage point drop over 7 years according to Pew. However, there was a much smaller decline of 3 percentage points in the share who identify as Christian and also report attending church at least weekly – from 41% to 38%. This suggests a modest decline in the Christian-committed population underneath broader Christian identity trends.
Similar patterns are seen in Western Europe. For example, Christian identity declined by 5 percentage points in Germany from 2010 to 2014, but regular church attendance dropped less from 14% to 11% of the population. Affiliation measures a broader social-cultural Christian identity which can change faster than actual religiosity.
In both Western Europe and North America, those who retain their Christian identity attend church less but have not necessarily abandoned faith. For example, only 24% of British Christians in 2013 viewed church attendance as important to being a Christian, down from 41% in 1983.
So while Christianity’s social footprint is diminishing in the West, measures of religious commitment suggest a more gradual decline underneath broader affiliation trends.
Generational Dynamics
Another key factor is the differing religiosity across generations. Younger generations tend to be less religiously affiliated and committed than older generations who remain predominantly Christian in the West.
For example, only 47% of U.S. millennials (born 1981-1996) identify as Christian versus 75% of Baby Boomers according to Pew. Millennials are also much less observant – only 27% report attending religious services weekly compared to nearly half of Boomers.
This means broader Christian decline in the West is gradual rather than sudden, unfolding over generations. The balance will depend on whether younger generations become more religious over time as has happened before.
Complex Factors Behind Christianity’s Changing Global Footprint
Behind the numbers are complex social forces shaping Christianity’s evolving global footprint. Key factors include:
- Demographics – Birth rates, mortality, migrations are altering Christian distribution.
- Politics – Regimes supporting or suppressing religion influences Christian growth and decline.
- Economics – Development levels impact secularization versus religiosity trends.
- Culture – Modernization driving secularization in the West, while values and tradition sustain faith elsewhere.
- Innovation – New movements like Pentecostalism fuel expansion, while crises challenge faith.
Christianity’s geographical center of gravity is shifting south due to demographics and cultural differences between the developing world and secularizing West. But complexity beneath the numbers means Christianity will likely remain globally influential for the foreseeable future, albeit changed.
Conclusion
Is Christianity increasing or decreasing? There is no simple global answer – it depends whether you look at Christian affiliation or commitment, and region. Broad Christian identity is growing in the developing world but declining in the West. Yet, underneath this, active Christian commitment may be declining less steeply. Overall, Christianity is shifting south globally, while secularizing in its traditional Western heartland.
Christianity is following different regional trajectories which complicate global generalizations. Despite Western declines, Christianity is likely to remain the world’s largest religion in the coming decades buoyed by developing world growth. However, its influence will be shaped by complex demographic, cultural and religious factors that differ starkly by region. Christianity’s future lies not in the West, but the energy of the global South.