A PhD is meant to be an intense period of focused research and study, culminating in the production of a thesis that makes an original contribution to knowledge. However, despite the best intentions, not all PhD students manage to see their doctorate through to completion. Dropout and non-completion rates among PhD candidates have been a concern across many countries and academic disciplines. But just how common is it for PhD students to give up before attaining their doctorate? Let’s examine what the statistics and research say.
Key Statistics on PhD Non-Completion
Several studies have tried to quantify PhD non-completion rates, with results varying depending on country, institution, and field of study. Some key statistics include:
- In the United States, 57% of PhD students in the social sciences and humanities complete their doctorate within 10 years. In the life sciences, the 10-year completion rate is 64% (Council of Graduate Schools).
- In the UK, approximately 1 in 3 PhD students drops out before completion. Non-completion rates are highest in the arts and humanities (Times Higher Education).
- A French study found that 50% of PhD candidates quit before obtaining their doctorate. The dropout rate was highest in the first year of the PhD program (Levecque et al 2017).
- In Australia, completion rates differ dramatically by field of study. In science fields, approximately 25% of students withdraw. In the humanities, the withdrawal rate is around 67% (Group of Eight).
So while non-completion rates vary, it appears that across many countries and disciplines, at least 1 in 3 PhD candidates either quits or fails to complete their doctorate program within the allotted time span. The attrition rate is particularly high within the first 1-2 years.
Reasons PhD Students Leave Before Completing
Why do so many doctoral students end up giving up on their PhDs? Research has explored the many reasons behind non-completion:
Academic struggles – Many students withdraw after realizing they are not cut out for the intense rigor of doctoral research. Poor research progress, lack of originality, and academic failure are common triggers for leaving (Willis and Carmichael 2011).
Personal problems – Stress, mental health issues, family responsibilities, financial pressures, health problems, and other personal issues can derail PhD progress (Maher et al 2004).
Supervision difficulties – Poor student-supervisor relationships, lack of contact time with advisors, and minimal feedback are strongly correlated with non-completion (Lovitts 2001).
Lack of program support – Insufficient funding, absence of research training, and lack of peer support networks increase dropout rates (Gardner 2010).
Career prospects – Some students realize academic careers are unattainable or undesirable, so they exit with a masters degree to pursue industry jobs (Sowell 2008).
Lack of motivation – Many students lose motivation and passion for their research topic, or realize a PhD no longer matches their career goals (Ivankova and Stick 2007).
While individual reasons vary, clearly both academic and personal factors converge to push PhD students to quit. Universities looking to improve PhD completion rates need to address supervision, program structure, student well-being and motivation.
When Do Students Usually Drop Out?
The timing of non-completion sheds further light on the typical PhD journey. Studies find dropout rates are highest in:
Year 1 – The first year involves intensive coursework and new research demands, which can overwhelm unprepared students. Many realize in this initial year they are mismatched to PhD study.
Year 2 – By the second year, students have begun their dissertation research. Academic failure and realization this work is unsustainable leads to many quitting.
Years 3-4 – Non-completion rates decline but still remain significant in the middle PhD years. Dissertation stalls, personal pressures, and funding losses prompt withdrawals.
Final year – A subset of students make it to final dissertation writing then still fail to graduate. Lack of motivation, poor supervision, and academic failure account for many “ABD” cases (“all but dissertation”).
While non-completion can happen at any stage, clearly the make-or-break period for most PhD students is in the vulnerable first years. Those who make it through initial milestones have much higher odds of persisting through to their doctorate.
Exploring High Non-Completion Fields
Non-completion rates differ substantially depending on field of study. Let’s take a closer look at two broad disciplines with exceptionally high PhD dropout rates – humanities and social sciences.
Humanities
In Australia, the United Kingdom, the United States and many other countries, humanities PhDs have the lowest completion rates across disciplines. For example:
- In the UK, 47% of humanities PhD students complete within 7 years, compared to 78% in biological sciences (HEFCE 2009).
- At American universities, 57% of history PhD students and 61% of arts PhD students finish within 10 years (CGS).
- One study of Canadian institutions found a 67% attrition rate in humanities PhDs (Elgar 2003).
Why do so many humanities PhDs stall out? Key factors include:
Isolation – Humanities research is often a solo endeavor lacking team support.
Lengthy dissertations – Books-long final theses require intense motivation over many years.
Limited funding – Less grant funding is available compared to science fields.
Ambiguous milestones – Progress metrics are less structured than in technical subjects.
Career uncertainty – Limited academic job prospects in many humanities disciplines.
To improve completion rates, humanities programs need better mentoring and support structures to offset student isolation and uncertainty.
Social Sciences
After the humanities, social science PhDs generally have the next highest non-completion rates, for example:
- In the US, only 57% of social science PhDs graduate within 10 years (CGS).
- A UK study found social science completion rates of 67% compared to 87% for biological sciences (HEFCE 2009).
- In New Zealand, half of PhD candidates in the social sciences failed to complete their doctorate over a 5-year period (Scott 2005).
Factors driving social science PhD dropouts include:
Data challenges – Setbacks in data collection and analysis often hinder progress.
Theoretical complexity – Developing models and frameworks can prove untenable.
Unclear methodologies – Less structured methods than in science fields.
Limited funding – Less grant funding available compared to technical subjects.
Uncertain career prospects – Tenure-track academic positions are competitive.
Enhanced supervision, methodological supports and career guidance could help more social science PhDs persist through research roadblocks.
Does the Type of Institution Matter?
All universities are not equal when it comes to PhD completion rates. Student quality, program supports and research infrastructure can vary dramatically across different institutional settings. Does the type of school impact a PhD student’s likelihood of finishing?
Elite Universities
Highly prestigious universities tend to have the highest PhD completion rates and shortest times-to-degree:
- Ivy League schools graduate 80-90% of doctoral students within 7 years across disciplines (CGS).
- At Oxford and Cambridge, approximately 90% of PhD students attain their doctorate (HEFCE 2009).
- The University of Tokyo has a 96% PhD completion rate with most students finishing in under 5 years (Jung 2011).
The abundant resources, generous funding, close supervision, and top-tier students at elite schools facilitate timely PhD completions. Higher selectivity also means students are better screened for fit and potential.
Mid-Tier Universities
The completion outlook is bleaker at many mid-ranked universities:
- Public universities in the US average 57% PhD completion across disciplines after 10 years (CGS).
- Australian Group of Eight universities have an average PhD attrition rate around 37% (Go8 2017).
- At Japanese national universities, 20-30% of PhD students withdraw before attaining their doctorate (Jung 2011).
While selective, mid-tier universities still struggle with lower faculty-to-student ratios, less funding, and inadequate research infrastructure compared to elite institutions. This hinders completion rates.
Teaching-Focused Institutions
Attrition rates escalate at teaching-intensive universities with minimal research activity:
- Regional public universities in the US have PhD completion rates as low as 30% in 10 years (CGS).
- Australian colleges focused on teaching rather than research lose 50-60% of PhD candidates (Group of Eight 2017).
- Across Israeli universities, just 37% of PhD students successfully attained their doctorate over a 7-year period (Ehrenberg et al 2007).
At teaching-centric schools, PhD students often lack adequate research mentorship, funding and lab facilities – key ingredients for degree completion.
Institutions clearly play a major role in PhD outcomes. Well-resourced universities enable students to sustain motivation and progress, while resource-poor schools can derail even dedicated students.
What About Online PhD Programs?
Amid rising demand for distance education, an increasing number of universities now offer online PhDs. But do these programs have higher dropout rates and lower completion than traditional campus-based PhDs?
The data is sparse, but early research suggests online PhD attrition may be comparable if programs provide adequate support:
- One study found a 10% withdrawal rate from an online computer science PhD program, similar to on-campus rates (Carlin 2010).
- Analysis of an online educational technology PhD showed a 12.5% dropout rate, lower than the discipline average (Ivankova and Stick 2007).
- The UK Open University’s distance PhD programs have completion rates of 60-70%, not far below the national average (HEFCE 2009).
However, online PhD students do cite isolation, limited peer interaction, and lack of campus resources as challenges. Careful program design and enhanced support mechanisms are essential to prevent online student attrition.
More data is certainly needed. But with proper implementation, online PhD programs may eventually achieve similar completion rates to traditional doctoral degrees.
Steps Students Can Take to Complete
While external factors play a key role, PhD students themselves are not powerless when it comes to completion. There are several steps individuals can take to help stay motivated and attain the doctorate:
Choose advisors carefully – Find mentors who will provide adequate time, support and feedback.
Set interim goals – Break the mammoth PhD task into achievable milestones.
Make steady progress – Maintain focus and consistent effort, especially at dissertation stage.
Form support networks – Seek out peers and groups to avoid isolation.
Practice self-care – Make time for healthy habits to avoid burnout.
Be open to evolving goals -Stay open-minded if original topic or plans need change.
Use available resources – Take advantage of all academic supports provided.
Keep motivation high – Sustain passion for work through challenges.
With grit and resilience, PhD students can play an active part in earning their doctoral degree.
Conclusion
The road to a PhD is long, arduous and uncertain. Despite bright hopes and rigorous selection, over a third of doctoral candidates at universities worldwide ultimately join the ranks of PhD non-completers. Attrition rates approach 50% or higher in disciplines like humanities and social sciences. Personal pressures, advisor relationships, academic struggles, and institutional supports all converge to impact a student’s likelihood of persistence. While PhD completion requires luck and circumstance, students can also take proactive steps to cross the doctoral finish line. With enhanced program supports and student strategies, universities can help more motivated students hold fast and attain the pinnacle of academic achievement.