How many people are leaving Russia?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 has sparked an exodus of Russian citizens fleeing the country. Many Russians are leaving due to fears of increasing authoritarianism, diminished freedoms, economic instability, and growing international isolation. Determining exactly how many Russians have left is difficult, but various data sources suggest the numbers are substantial.

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How Many Russians Have Left Since the War Began?

According to Russia’s official statistics agency, 419,000 more people left Russia than entered from January to March 2022. This represents a significant increase from the same period in 2021, when the net outflow was only around 66,000. While not all of those departing are Russian citizens, it illustrates a noteworthy rise in exits since the war started.

Some more specific data points on Russians leaving include:

Up to 200,000 IT professionals and their families may have left Russia by March 2022, according to an estimate from a Russian IT trade association.
Around 100,000 are estimated to have traveled to Armenia in early 2022, with many seeking to settle more permanently.

Up to 40,000 Russians arrived in Georgia in the first week following the invasion, with more than 90,000 having registered as visitors by late April.
50,000 to 70,000 traveled to Kazakhstan in March, though some were only transiting through to other destinations.

These fragmentary statistics don’t account for all the possible destinations but suggest potentially hundreds of thousands of individual Russian citizens exiting the country since the Ukraine conflict began.

What Are the Main Destinations for Russians Leaving?

Russians leaving the country since February 2022 have headed to a diverse set of international destinations, with factors like ease of travel, pre-existing ties, and immigration policies impacting preferences. Here are some of the top receiving countries:

Armenia – Direct flights, easy entry requirements, and cultural connections make Armenia an attractive option. Upwards of 40,000 Russians may have relocated to Armenia already.
Georgia -Georgia allows visa-free entry for Russians and is seen as relatively safe and affordable. It’s estimated over 40,000 Russians have immigrated since the war started.

Kazakhstan – Kazakhstan shares a long land border with Russia and as a former Soviet Republic has historic ties. 50,000-70,000 Russians went to Kazakhstan in March 2022.
Turkey – A top tourist destination for Russians in the past, Turkey is now attracting Russian immigrants due to easy e-visas and vibrant cities like Istanbul. Up to 50,000 Russians may have moved to Turkey.
UAE – With livable cities like Dubai and good air links to Russia, the UAE has become a hub for wealthier Russian emigrants.

Israel – Having Jewish ancestry allows access to Israeli citizenship entitlement, driving Russian Jewish migration.
Finland – Proximity and established business ties with Russia have made Finland a refuge for Russian emigrants.

In addition to these primary destinations, Russians are moving in smaller numbers to countries across Europe, Asia, and the Americas, including Germany, Thailand, Argentina, and Mexico.

What Factors Are Motivating Russians to Leave?

The decision to pack up and leave one’s native country is never easy or taken lightly. For the Russians exiting since early 2022, a mixture of “push” and “pull” factors are at play:

Push Factors Driving Russians Out

Fear of repression and loss of freedoms under Putin’s increasingly authoritarian system.
A desire not to live under the tightening censorship and “memory laws.”

Moral objections to the invasion of Ukraine and war crimes being committed there.
Worsening economic conditions and ruble instability make professional and personal futures look bleak.
Possible conscription into military service creates unease.

Pull Factors Attracting Russians Abroad

More democratic and open societies in destinations like Georgia and Armenia.
Modern, cosmopolitan cities like Istanbul and Dubai offer high living standards.
Opportunities to continue tech and other careers abroad, especially in Israel and Germany.

Cultural affinity with destinations like Finland.
Ancestral ties to countries like Israel and Germany facilitate immigration.

A combination of grim prospects in Russia and brighter futures in new countries is leading many Russians to start a new life elsewhere.

Which Demographics Are Most Likely to Leave Russia?

The exodus from Russia encompasses Russians across ages and income levels but seems particularly strong among:

Youth – Young adults and university students fear being cut off from the world and economic stagnation.
Liberals – Progressive, anti-Putin political views make emigration attractive.

Tech workers – Internationally connected IT professionals can often continue careers abroad.
Entrepreneurs – Business owners are hampered by sanctions and poor investment climate.
Jewish Russians – Jewish heritage facilitates resettlement in Israel.

Affluent citizens – Wealthy Russians can access visas and residency in pricier countries.

But even middle-class families with average incomes are uprooting, given the gravity of the geopolitical situation and simple desires for a better future.

How Does Russia’s “Brain Drain” Impact the Country?

The outflux of thousands of educated, talented Russians will likely have detrimental effects on Russia’s economic and technological potential. Some possible ramifications include:

Lost investments in the education and training of emigrating doctors, engineers, and other professionals.
Tech and start-up brain drain hampers development of hi-tech industries.
Innovation and research capacity is reduced from the loss of academics and researchers.

State services and infrastructure projects face talent shortages.
Youth emigration creates an aging demographic imbalance.

Estimates indicate the economic impacts from emigration could reduce Russia’s GDP by 1-2% in coming years. The highly skilled nature of those leaving exacerbates the damage.

Will the Numbers Leaving Increase as the War Drags On?

Russia maintained generally low emigration rates in the decades prior to 2022, despite some surge periods. But multiple factors indicate the departures may intensify going forward:

Deteriorating economic conditions will spur more job-seeking emigrants.
Crackdowns on dissent and civil liberties boost motivation to leave.

Ongoing conscription efforts increase desire to evade military service.
Upper and middle classes hollowed out already may trigger a “snowball effect.”
Workarounds to travel restrictions like Armenia-Georgia-EU routes expand.

However, various obstacles remain that could stem the tide, such as:

Mass visa bans by Western countries for Russian citizens.
Rules introduced by Russia restricting military-aged men from exiting.

Financial barriers for middle and lower-income Russians who lack savings.
Pandemic-related disruptions to immigration and travel capacity worldwide.

Much depends on the duration of the conflict in Ukraine and associated upheavals inside Russia. But a continuation of hundreds of thousands leaving annually looks likely.

Conclusion

Russia is experiencing a significant emigration wave as the Ukraine conflict and its domestic fallout prompt many citizens to seek new lives abroad. This “brain drain” spans demographics but appears particularly strong among youth, tech professionals, and educated urbanites.

While hard to measure exactly, exits are substantial enough to impact Russia’s economy and future productive capacity. The breadth of destination options, from Armenia to Israel to Mexico, illustrates the global scale of this migrant flow.

Ongoing departure of even a fraction of a percent of Russia’s 144 million people represents a meaningful exodus. As economic and political conditions worsen, the numbers seem poised to keep rising higher still.