Self-driving or “automatic” cars are an exciting new technology that is just starting to become available to consumers. As with any new technology, there are a lot of questions about how well they will perform and how long they will last. In this article, we’ll take a look at the expected lifespan and durability of self-driving cars.
What is the lifespan of current model self-driving cars?
Most self-driving cars available today are essentially regular cars that have been retrofitted with self-driving technology. This includes models like the Tesla Models S, 3, X and Y. Since they use the same underlying vehicle as the non-self-driving version, their lifespan is expected to be about the same as a typical modern gasoline-powered car.
The average lifespan of a new car in the United States is about 8 years or 150,000 miles, according to automotive research firms like IHS Markit. There’s no evidence to suggest self-driving cars would have a shorter lifespan than this range under normal driving conditions.
Of course, the self-driving sensors and computers will likely need replacement or upgrading before 8 years, but the underlying vehicle should have a comparable lifespan to a non-self-driving version if properly maintained.
Do self-driving cars have more wear and tear?
There are some factors that could lead to increased wear and tear on self-driving cars:
- More electrical components – The computers, sensors and wiring create more potential failure points.
- Increased mileage – Self-driving cars may be used for ride-hailing, deliveries, etc. leading to more miles.
- Experimental nature – As an emerging technology, problems may crop up.
However, self-driving algorithms are designed to follow traffic laws and pilot vehicles smoothly. This could actually reduce wear compared to human drivers.
Industry experts say there is no clear evidence either way yet on whether self-driving cars will have more mechanical wear and tear. Only time and real-world experience will tell.
What is the lifespan of dedicated self-driving cars?
Several companies are developing vehicles designed from the ground up specifically for self-driving. This includes Google’s Waymo One and Cruise Origin. Being designed for self-driving from the start may improve their durability.
Here are some lifespan estimates for dedicated self-driving cars:
| Model | Estimated Lifespan |
| Waymo One | 500,000 – 1 million miles |
| Cruise Origin | Over 1 million miles |
| Zoox Robotaxi | Over 1 million miles |
That compares to about 200,000 miles for a typical passenger car. The increased lifespan estimates are based on:
- Optimized self-driving components with redundancy
- Designed for high-utilization ride-hailing
- Built with durable materials
- Modular components for easy repair and upgrades
If these vehicles live up to their designed lifespan, it could greatly reduce maintenance costs per mile traveled.
How will self-driving fleets impact lifespan?
Many experts believe self-driving cars will primarily be used in shared fleets rather than individual ownership. Fleet operators aim to maximize the utilization and lifespan of vehicles.
Fleets have expertise in maintenance, repair and asset management that individual owners typically lack. This helps increase vehicle lifespan.
Uber, for example, has discussed plans to replace the wheels on its self-driving cars after just 12,000 miles. That level of preventative maintenance exceeds what most individual owners do.
Higher utilization in fleets means vehicles accumulate miles quickly. But fleets routinely operate vehicles over 250,000 miles by rigorous maintenance. Self-driving fleets will follow similar principles.
What is the lifespan of self-driving taxi and delivery fleets?
Self-driving vehicles are likely to be used extensively for ride-hailing, deliveries and other fleet services. This will put heavy mileage on them in a short timeframe.
Industry analysts estimate self-driving taxis may each accumulate 100,000+ miles per year through nearly continuous operation. Delivery vehicles could also see very high annual mileages.
At that rate, a self-driving fleet vehicle would reach over 1 million miles after just 5-10 years. Hitting this lifespan would require strict adherence to maintenance schedules and aggressive component replacement.
Companies like Waymo and Cruise are targeting 1-2 million miles or 5-7 years of lifespan for their self-driving fleet vehicles. However, real-world experience may prove this difficult to achieve at scale.
What type of driving reduces self-driving car lifespan?
Certain operating conditions can accelerate wear and shorten the lifespan of self-driving cars. These include:
- Extreme weather – Cold winter climates or excessively hot areas wear on vehicles.
- Urban driving – Stop-and-go traffic and potholes cause more strain.
- Mountainous terrain – Steep grades increase component wear.
- Desert areas – Heat and dust shorten electronics life.
Companies will need real-world data to identify any geographic areas or conditions that cause premature aging of self-driving cars.
How are self-driving cars designed for durability?
Engineers are employing a variety of strategies to maximize the durability and lifespan of self-driving vehicles:
- Redundant systems – Backup components minimize single points of failure.
- Ruggedized parts – Sensors and lidars built for harsh conditions.
- Modular components – For easy replacement of consumable parts.
- Over-the-air updates – Reduce need to take vehicles offline.
- Predictive maintenance – Identify issues before they become problems.
Designing for serviceability is also key. Engineers want to enable easy access and replacement of components most likely to fail, like sensors, lidars and suspension parts.
Will self-driving cars always be maintained by fleets?
Initially, self-driving cars will likely operate primarily in fleets maintained by companies like Waymo, Cruise and Uber. Individual ownership may be limited.
However, if costs come down, self-driving technology could migrate into personally-owned vehicles. The lifespan for individually-owned self-driving cars may end up closer to the average of 8 years and 150,000 miles for regular vehicles.
Individual owners are less likely to adhere to strict maintenance regimes that maximize lifespan. But competition could prompt automakers to build durability into self-driving cars even for individual owners.
Will scheduled maintenance help self-driving car lifespan?
Yes, following scheduled maintenance recommendations will be critical to achieving the maximum lifespan of self-driving cars.
Manufacturers like Waymo and Cruise will provide maintenance schedules tailored specifically for their self-driving models. Adhering to these schedules will help fleet operators maximize utilization before replacing vehicles.
Scheduled maintenance for self-driving cars will likely include:
- Tire rotation and replacement
- Wheel alignment
- Sensor calibration and cleaning
- Hardware and software updates
- Fluid flushes and changes
- Brake pad replacement
Performing prescribed maintenance at designated intervals will minimize failures and unplanned downtime. Given their complexity, self-driving cars are unlikely to achieve maximum lifespan without diligent and proactive maintenance.
Will self-driving cars be reused after initial lifespan?
With 1-2 million mile lifespans, self-driving cars are designed to operate extensively in their initial use case. However, second lives may be possible.
Some options for self-driving cars after retirement from taxi/delivery fleets:
- Sold into conventional ride-hailing services
- Resold through used car dealers
- Repurposed for delivery bots in closed environments
- Used for other autonomous applications like mining
- Stripped for usable spare parts
Given their high-mileage accumulation, self-driving cars reaching end of lifespan likely won’t have the same residual value as conventionally driven vehicles. But opportunities for reuse could help maximize return on investment.
Conclusion
Self-driving cars are built for durability, with potentially 1+ million mile lifespans under fleet operation. Dedicated self-driving vehicles may last 5-10 years or more. This compares favorably to the average 8 year lifespan of conventional cars.
Achieving these lifespans will require strict adherence to preventative maintenance by fleet operators. Individual owners may not reach the same maximum mileage due to less rigorous upkeep. Operating conditions will also impact lifespan, with harsh environments causing more wear.
Overall, self-driving cars show promise for extended lifespans exceeding human-driven vehicles. But realizing this will rely on sound maintenance practices and continual engineering refinement as real-world data accumulates.