There has been much speculation over the years about whether Israel possesses nuclear weapons. Israel has never officially confirmed or denied having nukes, maintaining a policy of deliberate ambiguity on the subject. However, most experts believe Israel has had a nuclear weapons program for decades and has assembled an arsenal of around 80-100 nuclear warheads. While Israel’s nuclear capabilities are undeclared, the country is widely believed to have developed nuclear weapons in the 1960s with the help of France, and perhaps later with the aid of South Africa. Let’s examine the evidence surrounding Israel’s nuclear program and arsenal.
History of Israel’s Nuclear Program
Israel’s pursuit of nuclear weapons actually began in the early 1950s when Israel first established the foundations of its nuclear program under the leadership of Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion. After facing attacks from Arab nations in 1948 and 1967, Israel felt it needed a nuclear deterrent to ensure its security and survival.
In the 1950s and 1960s, Israel secretly collaborated with France to build the foundations of its nuclear program, including a plutonium production reactor and reprocessing plant in Dimona in the Negev desert. The Dimona facility allowed Israel to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons.
By the late 1960s, U.S. intelligence analysts believed Israel may have successfully developed nuclear weapons. To this day, Israel maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity regarding its nuclear arsenal, neither confirming nor denying its existence. But most experts are confident Israel has had nukes since the late 1960s.
Evidence of Israel’s Nuclear Weapons Capability
While Israel has never officially acknowledged having nuclear weapons, there is ample evidence pointing to the existence of an Israeli nuclear arsenal:
- Satellite imagery has revealed Israel’s plutonium production reactor at Dimona along with estimates of how much plutonium Israel has produced over the decades – enough for 100-200 warheads.
- In 1986, a former Israeli nuclear technician named Mordechai Vanunu leaked photos and details of Israel’s secret nuclear weapons program to the British media, confirming the existence of Israel’s program.
- Over the years, a number of U.S. and Israeli officials have also hinted or implied that Israel possesses nuclear weapons.
- Nuclear testing: Some analysts believe Israel may have secretly collaborated with South Africa in 1979 to test a nuclear device in the South Atlantic Ocean.
Based on available satellite imagery, expert analyses, and historical precedent, most believe Israel has 80-100 nuclear warheads today with the materials and technical capacity to build more as needed.
Has Israel Publicly Tested Nuclear Weapons?
Israel is not known to have carried out full-scale nuclear weapons tests within its own borders. However, there is one known instance in 1979 when Israel is believed to have collaborated with the apartheid regime in South Africa to test a nuclear device. On September 22, 1979, a U.S. VELA satellite that detects atmospheric nuclear tests recorded a flash in the South Atlantic Ocean near South Africa’s Prince Edward Islands. Both Israel and South Africa denied responsibility. But in 2016, the then-leader of South Africa confirmed the Vela incident was the result of a joint Israeli-South African nuclear test. To this day, it is the only known instance of potential Israeli involvement in nuclear testing.
Why Won’t Israel Publicly Acknowledge its Nuclear Arsenal?
Israel refuses to publicly acknowledge possession of nuclear weapons. There are a few key reasons why:
- Strategic ambiguity: Maintaining uncertainty helps deter enemy attack without provoking major international opposition to its arsenal.
- Nonproliferation: Admitting to having nukes would require Israel to declare and eliminate its arsenal under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
- International pressure: Publicly acknowledging a nuclear arsenal could lead to sanctions and undermine Israel’s strategic relationships.
- Psychological edge: Keeping adversaries guessing gives Israel an advantage.
By neither confirming nor denying a nuclear arsenal, Israel reaps the benefits of deterrence that nuclear weapons provide while also avoiding the political repercussions of being a declared nuclear state.
What Delivery Systems Does Israel Possess?
Although Israel’s nuclear arsenal is undeclared, most analysts believe Israel has developed air, land and sea-based nuclear delivery systems including:
- F-16 and F-15 fighter jets: These aircraft are believed to be Israel’s primary delivery systems for dropping nuclear gravity bombs on targets.
- Jericho ballistic missiles: Israel is believed to have Jericho I short-range and Jericho II intermediate-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear payloads.
- Dolphin-class submarines: Israel’s advanced submarine fleet may provide a seaborne second strike nuclear capability with cruise missile launch capability.
Israel continues advancing its delivery systems, providing redundancy across air, land and sea platforms for a robust second strike nuclear deterrent.
What Nuclear Facilities Does Israel Possess?
While most details remain classified, these are some of the key nuclear facilities believed to play a role in Israel’s nuclear program:
- Dimona – Plutonium production reactor and reprocessing plant in the Negev desert for producing fissile material for weapons.
- Yodefat – Designated facility for assembling nuclear weapons themselves as well as final storage.
- Tehachapi – Primary nuclear weapons design and assembly facility.
- Soreq – Center for nuclear research and design.
- Negev Nuclear Research Center – R&D on nuclear weapons design and production technologies.
Together, these form the key infrastructure enabling Israel to develop, produce, stockpile and maintain its nuclear arsenal. Facilities are dispersed and hardened to enhance survivability.
Could Israel’s Policy of Nuclear Ambiguity Ever Change?
While Israel has upheld its policy of nuclear ambiguity for decades, factors that could potentially lead it to change course and declare its arsenal include:
- Perception of waning U.S. support: If Israel feels less secure in the U.S.’s commitment to its defense, it may be more forthcoming about nukes as deterrence.
- Leadership change: A new governing coalition more open to transparency may revise nuclear policy.
- Increased external nuclear threats: A rising threat environment from Iran, terrorists or other adversaries could compel Israel to underscore its capability.
- Growing international legitimacy: As de facto acceptance grows of Israel’s arsenal, the optics of going public may improve.
However, any change in current policy is likely to be very gradual. And while pressure for Israel to adhere to nuclear treaties may increase, the country deals with unique security circumstances unlikely to be met by global norms.
How Does the International Community Respond to Israel’s Nuclear Program?
The international community generally deals with Israel’s nuclear program by looking the other way, neither forcing transparency nor imposing major constraints. Reasons for this include:
- U.S. protection: Close Israel-U.S. ties discourage strong international actions against Israeli policy.
- Western sympathy: Israel’s security situation evokes understanding in the West.
- No urgent threat: The program is longstanding versus aggressively expanding.
- Geopolitical alignments: Israel’s adversaries also reject nuclear transparency, weakening criticism.
Critics argue this undermines nonproliferation efforts. But Israel’s unique threat environment means its program does not seriously undermine the global nuclear order.
How Might a Nuclear Iran Impact Israel’s Deterrence Stance?
If Iran became an overt nuclear weapons state, Israel would face pressure to reciprocate with more nuclear transparency to firmly establish deterrence. Remaining silent could embolden Iran. Israel would likely adopt more explicit nuclear signaling and doctrinal development to counter an Iranian threat. But full abandonment of ambiguity would still involve risks. Ultimately, Israel would likely only go as far as it felt necessary to credibly deter Iranian aggression, while avoiding possible unintended consequences.
Conclusion
In summary, while Israel has never publicly acknowledged having nuclear weapons, it is widely accepted that the country has maintained an undeclared nuclear arsenal since the 1960s. Israel’s policy of deliberate ambiguity serves to deter enemies while avoiding consequences of being an official nuclear state. The country will likely retain this stance as long as it deems risks of going public to outweigh deterrence benefits. But a rising threat environment, particularly a nuclear-armed Iran, could motivate a shift from ambiguity toward more explicit, declaratory nuclear deterrence in the future. How Israel navigates its nuclear posture in response to a changing Middle East will have profound strategic importance for the region and beyond.