Blackjack is one of the most popular casino table games due to its simplicity and low house edge. However, one of the most common dilemmas blackjack players face is whether to hit on soft 15 or 16. While the mathematically optimal plays are clear, real-world scenarios often call for adjustment based on the player’s hand, the dealer’s upcard, and the number of decks used.
What is a soft 15 or 16 hand?
In blackjack, any hand that contains an Ace counted as 11 is called a “soft” hand. This is because the Ace has flexibility – it can count as either 1 or 11. So a soft 15 hand would be an Ace + 4, Ace + 3 + 2, etc. A soft 16 hand would be Ace + 5, Ace + 4 + 2, etc.
With a soft 15 or 16, players have more options since they can’t bust by taking a hit. Hard 15 and 16 hands, where the Ace must count as 1, are riskier to hit on. So the decision to hit or stand on soft 15/16 is more nuanced.
Basic strategy recommends standing on soft 16
According to basic strategy, which is mathematically optimized for reducing the house edge, the recommended plays for soft 15 and 16 hands are:
- Soft 15 – Hit against dealer 2 through 6, otherwise stand.
- Soft 16 – Always stand.
Standing on a soft 16 makes sense when you consider the probabilities:
- The average card value is around 9.
- Drawing another card is nearly as likely to hurt you by giving the dealer a pat hand as it is to help you improve towards 21.
- The dealer will have to hit on 16 or less anyway, so the odds favor standing on soft 16.
When to deviate from basic strategy
However, basic strategy was devised under the assumption of an infinite deck. In reality, a number of factors can change the odds and warrant altering the recommended plays:
True count
Card counting assigns point values to each card rank based on their effect on the player’s edge. As cards are dealt, card counters keep a “running count” and calculate the “true count” to determine when the remaining deck favors the player. A high true count calls for more aggressive strategy deviations to capitalize.
When the true count is +2 or higher, basic strategy suggests hitting soft 16 against dealer 9, 10, and Ace. Standing on soft 15 should remain the play for true counts under +3.
Number of decks
Using fewer decks improves the player’s odds. With only one or two decks in play, the effect of each card becomes more significant as there are fewer cards left in the shoe. Players gain a higher edge with more aggressive plays:
- With a single-deck game, hit soft 16 against dealer 7 and up.
- With two decks, hit soft 16 against dealer 6 and up.
However, hitting soft 15 should still be avoided except as a rare strategy deviation at extremely favorable true counts.
Dealer hole card
In some blackjack games, the dealer’s second card is dealt face-up. This provides valuable information for strategy adjustments. If the dealer is showing a weak upcard like 5 or 6, it becomes more profitable to stand on soft 15 and 16 hands rather than risk busting.
Factors that should not change strategy
While the above factors warrant strategic adjustments, there are some common misconceptions about when to deviate from basic strategy:
Streaks of losses
A prolonged losing streak should not affect playing decisions. Each hand is an independent trial with random outcomes. Chasing losses by hitting more aggressively only serves to hurt your overall edge.
Upcoming shuffles
Some players hit more aggressively near the end of a shoe before a shuffle to try capitalizing on a higher concentration of face cards. But this rationale is flawed – the cards have no “memory” and the odds of drawing any particular card do not change as the shoe is depleted.
Number of players at the table
The number of players at a table does not significantly influence individual probabilities enough to warrant changes from basic strategy. The ratio of cards seen between different players will even out over time.
Player gut feelings
Hunches or gut feelings about drawing a certain card are not a statistically valid reason to deviate from the proven strategy. Any short term gains from seemingly clairvoyant draws will inevitably regress over time.
Putting it all together
Here are some final tips on playing soft 15 and 16 hands optimally:
- Use basic strategy as the default, then apply selective deviations based on true count, number of decks, and dealer upcard.
- Standing on soft 16 is correct in most scenarios. Only hit if the true count is very high in a single-deck game.
- Hitting soft 15 is correct against some weak dealer upcards but is still generally avoided. Use extreme caution and restraint.
- Use a basic strategy card or app as guidance and be wary of over-adjusting strategy based on emotional impulses.
- Card counting provides the most mathematically robust reasons to deviate – learn proper count strategies to maximize your edge.
Conclusion
Making the optimal plays on soft 15 and 16 impacts your overall expected value and long term profits in blackjack. Basic strategy recommends generally avoiding hitting these hands except for some dealer-dependent deviations. Card counting enables further strategy adjustments at very favorable counts. But be wary of chasing losses or over-adjusting your play based on emotional urges. Learn proper counting and deviation strategies, use a basic strategy guide for defaults, and watch your bottom line improve.