Blackjack is a popular casino game that pits players against the dealer in a contest to see who can get closest to 21 without going over. One of the most common decisions players face is whether or not to “hit” when they are dealt a 12 against the dealer’s upcard of a 3. There are several factors to consider when making this choice.
Basic Blackjack Strategy
Basic blackjack strategy provides a simple framework for playing hands optimally based on the player’s cards and the dealer’s upcard. According to basic strategy, the correct play when holding a 12 against a dealer 3 is to stand. The logic is that the dealer has a good chance of busting if they have to hit the 3 repeatedly to try to improve, while the player risks going over 21 by taking another card.
Dealer Bust Rate
To evaluate whether standing on 12 versus a 3 is the best play, it helps to look at the dealer’s chances of busting in this situation. Here are the bust rates for the dealer based on starting with a 3:
| Dealer’s Hand | Bust Rate |
|---|---|
| 3 | 42% |
| 13 | 35% |
| 16 | 28% |
| 17 | 11% |
As you can see, the dealer has around a 42% chance of busting if they start with just a 3. This bust rate decreases as they improve their hand, but remains significant until they reach 17.
Player Bust Rate
Now let’s compare the dealer’s bust rate to the chances of the player busting if they hit and get another card. Here are the bust rates starting from a hand of 12:
| Player’s Hand | Bust Rate |
|---|---|
| 12 | 0% |
| 13 | 8% |
| 14 | 17% |
| 15 | 25% |
| 16 | 34% |
| 17 | 42% |
| 18 | 50% |
| 19 | 58% |
| 20 | 67% |
| 21 | 100% |
The player bust rate starts low but increases quickly with each additional card. It surpasses the dealer’s bust rate once the player reaches 16.
Winning Chances
Putting it all together, here are the approximate chances of each outcome if the player stands versus hits against the dealer’s 3:
| Action | Player Win | Dealer Win | Push |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stand | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Hit | 37% | 29% | 34% |
Standing provides a higher chance of winning and lower chance of losing compared to hitting. The increased bust risk outweighs the possibility of improving to a better hand.
Exceptions
While basic strategy says to stand on 12 against a 3, there are some exceptions where hitting may be the better play:
Player Has Soft 12
If the player’s 12 includes an Ace that counts as 1 or 11, this is called a “soft” 12. With the Ace flexibility, the player can hit and only face about a 31% bust rate. Standing with a soft 12 removes the Ace’s value.
Dealer Shows 4, 5, or 6
If the dealer is showing a 4, 5, or 6 instead of a 3, their bust rate decreases. Standing on 12 becomes less attractive since the dealer has better odds to make a hand.
Many Cards Remain
Early in a blackjack shoe when there are many cards remaining, the player’s 12 is more likely to improve with a hit than bust. More 10-valued cards are still in the deck.
Pair Splitting
If the player’s 12 includes a pair like 6-6 or 5-5, splitting the pair into two separate hands is usually the best option. This increases the player’s chances and is preferable to standing or hitting.
Conclusion
While the player’s 12 is a relatively weak hand, basic blackjack strategy recommends standing against the dealer’s 3 because of the high bust potential if the dealer has to hit repeatedly. However, factors like card counting, soft hands, and pair splitting can make hitting the better choice in some circumstances. Understanding the odds and percentages behind each possible outcome will help you make the optimal play.